"Third, and trust me on this, there’s still an incredible shortage of the really good programmers, here and in India. Yes, there are a bunch of out of work IT people making a lot of noise about how long they’ve been out of work, but you know what? At the risk of pissing them off, really good programmers do have jobs"
From: https://www.joelonsoftware.com/2005/01/02/advice-for-compute...
There is a good reason Open Source development exploded during those years, as there were a lot of unemployed or 'underemployed' good engineers that had time to do some open source work while looking for a job.
By 2005 (when that article was written), the market had already recovered, and what he said is true (good engineers had already found a job), but that doesn't negate the fact that 2001-2002 was bad even for good engineers.
Maybe when he says "reall good programmers" he means the super productive people he's friends with. I know everyone on HN thinks they're in the top 10% of programmers, but realistically most of us are average or worse.
It is a whole paper about how becoming a programmer is a good choice, and that good programmers can find a place in the world.
To my eyes: There are two things needed for a "great programmer" to happen.
1. A programmer with good to great skills.
2. A company that they fit into.
You may work out in company A, it works well for you. You can hit max productivity there.
For me, A may be one of the worst ideas EVER, for various reasons. I'd do better at B, where you might fail.
A and B might even just be a large company and a small company, there is a big difference.
... So while I agree with Joel in context. I disagree with YOU.
" At the last conference I attended, I asked most people I met two questions:
Do you know of any companies that aren't highly dysfunctional?
Do you know of any particular teams that are great and are hiring?
Not one single person told me that their company meets the criteria in (1). A few people suggested that, maybe, Dropbox is ok, or that, maybe, Jane Street is ok, but the answers were of the form 'I know a few people there and I haven't heard any terrible horror stories yet, plus I sometimes hear good stories', not 'that company is great and you should definitely work there'. Most people said that they didn't know of any companies that weren't a total mess. "
Which doesn't at-all reflect the reality implied by abysmal hiring practices - recited on this page again and again and again.
Your quote's from a general article addressing CS undergrads still in school and further, from a subsection dismissing fears about an outright collapse in CS jobs outside of India.
Meanwhile, the parent's saying use your network, and there's plenty of demand for good developers.