If you compare with smartphones then we are pretty much in the late 1980s brick phone era where the technology is just starting to be adopted by society.
The key technology, AGI, has not even been invented yet. It’s possible we may see a mini bubble if AGI takes a while to be developed, but I think it’s more likely that we won’t because even the current generation of AI has a lot further to run.
I understand generative AI as a million monkeys on a million typewriters, but we figured out how to rig the typewriters to generate convincing and sometimes correct output.
Neither monkeys individually or collectively understand anything about how they responded. They just get a treat for doing well.
AGI is something very different IMO. Language and speech will be emergent in AGI without requiring massive inputs, like how a child learns.
LLMs seem like sort of a (very impressive) parlor trick. Neat, useful and terrifying, but not a pathway to AGI.
To clarify, I assume you are talking about Gen AI when you say "AI"?
In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me that Wall Street is already using it to trade some non-insignificant fraction of the US economy. Similar to how Linux is probably holding modern civilization together behind the scenes but most people are completely oblivious.
ChatGPT was the largest growing site in the history of the Internet, reaching 100 millions users in two months. This seems more than 1980 brick phones
It’s disingenuous comparing the way Facebook scaled to ChatGPT which scales primarily along social media vectors with massive distribution.
Every smartphone runs multiple AI systems in it. Some are used multiple times a day, most just working and keeping out of your way.
Unless you exclude from AI the stuff we used to call AI until it started working really well.