On a per capita basis, China's GDP is relatively low. If you look at periods where the US was at those levels (it's been a long time), the US was certainly growing at that rate and higher.

That's fairly silly because if the US economy goes down so does the Chinese. This is the source of a good chunk of the problems for China, the fact that due to the Russian invasion into Ukraine and the aftereffects of COVID global spending is down considerably and inflation and interest rates are up. That combined effect can absolutely create a problem for Xi and company, who looked very good when the rising tide was lifting all boats but who look exceedingly panicked now that the free lunch is over. China's internal economy is huge but not large enough to sustain all of the industry that it has and nobody wants to sit on a mountain of unsold inventory. Insiders talk of very high unemployment rates for the 20-30 bracket and a lack of motivation for the generation after that because of the reduced job prospects.

This kind of combination has the power to make serious trouble for the rulers. If there is one thing Asian leaders fear then it is that the mob one day wakes up and realizes they are in power. Tianmen Square was close, the next time it could well be the real thing and I'm fairly sure that Xi et al would prefer an outside uniting force or enemy over having to deal with a revolution which they certainly would not survive. China has been long overdue for one, and even though the typical sentiment as long as the economy is good is that they should get a pass changing conditions could well flip that on its head and unleash something that won't be that easy to contain. Time will tell. Hong Kong was pretty ugly, but mainland China saw it as a strong move, they may have seen that as a possible try-out for what the West would do if they start to bully Taiwan for real.

That's mainly because it's easier to grow from a lower base. (Also because they lie about their numbers more, but they're still directionally correct, just averaged out a lot.)

> We'd kill for 4.5% growth

The Fed estimate for Q3 is 5% (annualized). Q1 was 2.1%, and Q2 2.4%. So, a YoY of 3% or so is not inconceivable.

Not quite 4.5% but for instance, if the US GDP would continue growing on average at 1%, while China grew at 5%, China would still need 30 years to even reach 50% of the US's GDP per capita.

Did you know tearing down a building generates GDP, and so does building it? Just repeat that a few times, and you have infinite GPD.

I joke, but you see something like that happening sometimes (a ghost mall is constructed, never used, torn down, turned into something else that is never used, etc...).

When America's GDP was middle income, it had high GDP growth also. We made the mistake of extrapolating Japan's GDP growth as if it wouldn't taper off as Japan got rich, which meant, in 2020, Japanese would be twice as rich as Americans. That never happened, of course, because it doesn't really work like that.

China would kill for actual 4.5% growth too. You don't have 21.3% youth unemployment with 4.5% growth.

> We'd kill for 4.5% growth.

Speak for yourself. I'm not a member of the cult of the always upward line. Regular people don't really benefit from this growth.

I know this number is from Fitch afair and not the CCCP, but I always wonder if it is overstated. And if overstated, by how much.