When no one can afford to live in America anymore
culturcidal.com
culturcidal.com
The new car price chart says in tiny text "not adjusted for inflation".
At that point, I figured the rest of the article was likely to include similarly glaring methodology problems.
That's not the point. (As I said, the 60" TV stat is equally useless for evaluating inflation.) Cherry-picking a single product like "Campbell's tomato soup" is not a valid methodology for measuring inflation. Not because it's edible or inedible, but because it's too small of a sample size. You can tell any story you like about inflation and the economy by carefully hand-picking a single item.
If the price of an egg doubles, but the price of butter halves, what do we conclude about inflation? Nothing; we need more information.
[1] https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/chart-gallery/gallery...
It's not the food that's more expensive; it's the waiter and the cook that are more expensive.
Neither does the price of a can of a particular brand's tomato soup in isolation.
Not sure I agree. I think it leads to fundamentally misunderstanding the economy and an excessive focus on financial measures of the economy where other measures are available.
Although back then you could buy Campbell's Soup Cans (the painting) for just $60,000. In 2022, a famous Warhol painting went for ~$195,000,000.
One could take several of these wild predictions and flip them the other way. The author says military strength will decay due to poor quality recruits. You could also imagine that a job that comes with housing, food, health care and eventually access to higher education would be more desirable, and the military could have its pick of better recruits. The author says we'll put in place a wealth tax ... but in an era where savings already lose their value from the higher inflation also predicted, one might expect that putting a wealth tax into effect would be politically more difficult than in a lower inflation environment (ie savers are already being taxed). Etc etc.
Housing prices are the key to cost of living and have gotten really bad in so many places.
There's nothing that complicated about this: we should build more housing, and especially legalize denser, more environmentally friendly housing where there's a market fort it, rather than just do "cheap via sprawl".
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/11/us-housing... - "Supply skepticism and shortage denialism are pushing against the actual solution to the housing crisis: building enough homes."
Is your housing cost comparison factoring that in? The cost of lengthy commutes and the infrastructure to support them?
> In some cities this would mean building more highways, but that solution has been villified recently.
For good reason: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Induced_demand
Your second point relates to your first because induced demand doesn't say that increasing road capacity isn't useful. It tells us that now instead getting coffee one exit away, maybe you go to the better place two exits away. Was that extra capacity worth it? You'd have to tally a lot of intangibles to answer that. My premise is that the more rapidly people can get around the city the better demand can meet supply, reducing costs and improving quality. Maybe one way to answer the question would be to look at comparable cities where one has built their transportation routes out heavily and another where they haven't and compare various costs and quality of life measures.
But they're illegal in huge swathes of most cities in the US.
Having better transit systems would help a lot in the US, and frankly is pretty necessary in a lot of places. You just can't squeeze that many cars around. Transit is vastly more efficient in terms of the amount of people it can carry.
https://www.propublica.org/article/yieldstar-rent-increase-r...
> On a summer day last year, a group of real estate tech executives gathered at a conference hall in Nashville to boast about one of their company’s signature products: software that uses a mysterious algorithm to help landlords push the highest possible rents on tenants.
> “Never before have we seen these numbers,” said Jay Parsons, a vice president of RealPage, as conventiongoers wandered by. Apartment rents had recently shot up by as much as 14.5%, he said in a video touting the company’s services. Turning to his colleague, Parsons asked: What role had the software played?
> “I think it’s driving it, quite honestly,” answered Andrew Bowen, another RealPage executive. “As a property manager, very few of us would be willing to actually raise rents double digits within a single month by doing it manually.”
> Camden’s turnover rates increased about 15 percentage points in 2006 after it implemented YieldStar, Campo, the company’s CEO, told a trade publication a few years later. But that wasn’t a problem for the firm: Despite having to replace more renters, its revenue grew by 7.4%.
I don't know why one should believe this just because this guy says it. His customers are landlords, of course he's going to say that his product helps them make more money.
You still have the opportunity cost of not renting, but if rents are also increasing fast then keeping a property empty for longer makes sense so you don't get stuck in a long-term lease at a low rent. Dunno how true this is, but anecdotally I notice commercial properties staying vacant for longer, presumably because they operate on long-term leases.
1. There is still lots of money out there. Unfortunately for Jerome, getting it out is way harder than pumping it. It might take years.
2. Lots of people are locked in low fixed-rates mortgages that they'd exit if they can refinance at the same rate. This makes the market non-liquid and keeps the prices artificially high even though the volume are down.
> When you are a landlord and the home doesn't rent, my first instinct would be to lower the price until people start showing up, yet this doesn't appear to be happening.
Most people in the US use a rental agency. These are greedy and sneaky people. That being said, rents are down in most of the US. The market is correcting but it came from a very high place.
In order for the markets to function people need to be able to participate in them, which means people need an adequate supply of freely spendable money. How can money get to people? People with money need to give money to people without money. Without strings attached. That's the only way for people without money to get money that they're able to spend freely, is by getting it from the people or institutions that have money, no strings attached.
If wealthy people hoard money, for example if they hoard the entire money supply to the extent that everyone else is too sunk to participate in the markets, something's gonna give. There will eventually be a crisis in demand, a point where _people and organizations can no longer afford to participate_. They might not even be able to afford to get their basic needs met, to function or survive.
Without demurrage and/or adequate taxes on people/orgs with the most money, the only choice the government has to distribute money is lower the interest rate and hope that public institutions are finding excuses to give it to people ("jobs"). And then there is no way to deal with the ensuing inflation other than to whipsaw the other direction and constrict the money supply.
From my point of view the forces of accumulation and distribution need to be in balance. Currently they are not. It's not because of "the deficit". It's because we have inadequate tools for dealing with the hyperaccumulation, whether they be cultural practices or government tools.
Currency ought to be a collective good. If it's not serving coordination it's serving coordination failure.
> 7) America’s military will weaken dramatically as the quality of recruits plunges and we no longer have the money to properly maintain and supply our forces.
Tried and true right-wing media strategy: sucker people by talking about economic stress on the middle class (real issue), and gradually transition to moral hand-wringing and pumping the military-industrial complex (fake issues).
> 12) The government will institute a wealth tax. It will be sold as something to target the rich, but in practice, over time, they will be taking large amounts of money from people no one considers rich.
Interesting that they start by talking about how Campbell's soup is expensive and finish by talking about how the real threat is a wealth tax...
The 1970s were not an era of flat prices. They were an era of very high inflation. (14% a year, anyone? I was there. I'm pretty sure that people who are talking like the last year or two are the worst were not there in the 1970s.)
What changed was 1979-1981. The Fed pushed interest rates to the stratosphere. Inflation came down and stayed on a downward path from 1981 to 2020.
Back when I was on there regularly I got more the vibe of low income people being tired of the system not working for them which is something I empathized with.