London Then and Now: Aerial Shots Show City Grow over Past Two Decades
londonist.com
londonist.com
Reading Dickens is one way to get a feel for this. Many locations in his books are not yet part of the London conurbation. IIRC, one book has a character walking over fields to get to Hammersmith, for example.
Going back further there is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St_Martin-in-the-Fields
In the 1550s the country was unrecognisable compared to now. England's total population was about 3 million, now London's population is 9 million (and was 100k then)...
Edit: Apparently, wolves in England had just become extinct at the time...
The major global cities will still grow in the next 200 years compared to now, just not as much as they have the previous 200 years.
As for reasons why: nobody has one single cause, but a major one is that current economies mean children are more of a cost than a benefit, and even the most ambitious incentive programs dont make up for the toll of both working a job and taking care of a helpless human.
As for why this is a bad thing: There are a lot of inbuilt assumptions to the way society is structured that will begin to break down. Things like: there are more workers than retirees. There are more students than teachers. There are more juior employees than managers. When these kinds of things start to change, we will have to adapt society or things will just fall apart.
You're already starting to see previews of this sort of crisis in sectors where few young people join, like becoming merchant ship captains. People having to be called back from retirement, buisnesses failing not from lack of buisness but from lack of employees
But in the meantime things may get interesting.
I hope to start a family before people start imposing measure to limit population growth.
As I noted earlier. the birth rate is below replacement rate in almost all developed countries. If not for immigrants population would be shrinking. If anything they would demand more children...
The current demographic trend is based on this assumption. It goes out the window the moment we start meaningfully reducing the probability of death.
What does “Meaningfully reducing the probability of death” mean?
I thought death is certain. Do you mean pushing death further into to future, say by hundreds or thousands of years?
Eliminating or reducing the probability of death correlated to chronological age means our average lifespan is likely to be thousand of years, but not unlimited since we will die to other causes, likely involving accidents and natural disaster.
That's a separate problem to the population crisis. People thinks population's going to decline. I am not so sure. Things can change a lot in a few decade.
All we can say that at this current time, the trend is toward population decline.
This won't work forever, but it may buy a century or so.
Women wants careers and equal opportunities. That means they wait longer and longer before they get children because they want to make sure they have a career to go back to. That is the single most important problem that we need to solve.
1. Provide a decent parental leave (1 year minimum) with full pay.
2. Women often end up as the primary care giver who has to take care of the child when it is sick or attend parental meetings. This often hurts their career. We should incentivise men to take an equal part in raising a child, so that this is more accepted in work situations.
3. Provide free child care and health care. Many simply can't afford the additional financial burden of a child.
4. Provide free education including University. (see point 3)
5. Reduce the financial risk by creating a good safety net. If one or both of the parents are not able to cover their part, the government needs to provide enough support.
Simply put, the choice of having a child should not hurt families financially, or hurt their careers. Humans are "programmed" to want to reproduce, so if we remove the financial barriers
Yes, this will be expensive but it will be less expensive than a future without enough young people to take care of the old.
You are free to ask "Why should my money go to others", but then you don't get to complain when you are 90 years old and only get to shower once a month because they don't have enough people to help you.
Even though we would like people to live outside the cities, cities attract a lot of potential parents. They end up in a situation where they have a long education and start their careers late and don't have the financial capability to get a decent family friendly apartment in the city. Many wait until it's almost too late, and having more than 1 or 2 is definitely not something most wants
The average age of first-time mothers is over 30 years old. A single child may be something the family can handle, but more than 1 or 2 forces the families to move outside the cities to be able to afford a house in addition to hurting the mother's career.
Tldr:
- Cost of living in the cities are too high
- If a second (or third) child forces them to move out of the city, many increasingly choose the cities
- Having more than one child after 30 will have a negative impact on the career as they simply can't work as many hours and has to spend long periods away from work
If we want to go back to a sustainable birth rate, we need a wide range of actions. Some may require to reduce the financial risks, while others require encouraging cultural changes.
Zones beyond 6 have existed since at least the late 90s. My vague recollection is that A-C basically meant "the top end of the Metropolitan line" - certainly how it seemed for me as an SW Londoner. Then at some point the letters were changed to numbers and more stations were brought inside over in Essex, Kent, etc. The Wikipedia page for stations in zones 7-9 has a changelog of sorts: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stations_in_London_far...
Are there any good books / content on what day to day life was like for people in those times in London specifically?
as a european, this change is something special. in europe you will rarely find a city as big and important as London where there is so much construction taking place in every single corner of the city.
It can take trees ~30 years to reach maturity where they can span across an entire street.
I assumed that part of the reason the nicer neighborhoods in the EU and most the US were so nice is because they had always been green and nice.
But maybe it only takes ~10 years or so?
Not familiar with London, but looking at the pictures, it looks like maybe this is a relatively new thing?
If so, that's kind of exciting, because I figured it might take way longer for other parts of other cities to become as nice and pleasant as the select few crazy expensive neighborhoods we all love.
“A powerful storm ravaged many parts of the UK in the middle of October 1987.
With winds gusting at up to 100mph, there was massive devastation across the country and 18 people were killed. About 15 million trees were blown down. Many fell on to roads and railways, causing major transport delays. Others took down electricity and telephone lines, leaving thousands of homes without power for more than 24 hours.”
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/cas...
You can do America (urban sprawl) or Asia (skyscrapers).
I also wish we stopped giving more importance to preserving old buildings and architecture at the cost of making today's life hell for the residents.
The 20mph speed limit certainly helped to achive this. (Too slow to move around with a car.)
There is nothing build that would be for workshops or light manufacturing.
Friend of mine have been trying to find a workshop space in London or vicinity for over a year and there is very little available.
It's either very expensive and too large or could be alright, but it doesn't have a bathroom and a sink. How are you supposed to work if you can't even wash your hands or you have to go to another building to do it?
It's like everyone thinks here the jobs of future will feature a person with a laptop hot desking.
Madness.
Large capital cities are generally terrible places for manufacturing. Real estate is competitive, transport is congested and labour is expensive.
That's why most Chinese products come from tier 3 cities unless there's a really special need for skilled labour or a legacy factory happened to be built 15-20 years ago when the tier 1/2 cities were smaller.
Offices and warehouses is not what I expected to follow the first part of that sentence… office and warehouses are pretty productive! And likely a better use of space in a dense urban environment than a manufacturing facility.
But, if you, for instance want to do some light manufacturing - like making electronic devices, you are out of luck. In theory, you could do that kind of work in an office, but when estate agent hears about "soldering iron" or "ultrasonic cleaner" they nope out.
Edit: reason I ask is because I assume it's costs, I can't imagine your apartment was cheap. I don't see much evidence that even SWE's can comfortably live there.
I used to like going out in London: "everything's so cheap!" Especially, getting a nice beer at a random pub would cost significantly less than a random basic lager in Paris.
But this year, I was shocked to see the price increase. It's now pricier than Paris, even though Paris prices have also edged up a bit.
And since my cash is Euros, I always compared the prices as converted to euros, so this accounted for the conversion rate variations.
£8/pint is also way more expensive than normal. I was out in Shoreditch last night, paid £6.70 for a pint of Brewdog, and that was more than I'd usually pay.
UK is insane.
It's the same nanny state style as some other European countries where they will try and sell you nothing over the counter because "you might abuse it" but they have a drinking and illegal drug culture to rival the best of them.
The US sucks if you're in the lower end of the spectrum without insurance but with insurance you actually get treatment. There's other countries where it's a pleasure to have private healthcare if you're middle class but many in europe definitely aren't. They'll just try to discourage you unless you're having an "my leg is detaching" type of emergency.
There's a reason why there's ads in the tube to "go to turkey to fix X health problem".
We should stop comparing having a health net for the jobless in a country with the US and typical quality of life/healthcare situation for a professional.
Edit: If I felt things worked, and people would eventually be able to afford houses and get into a better situation high taxes would be fine, but it's high taxes and policies that still benefit the richest/landlords/corporates/big pharma. It's corruption and classism. He former is widespread in many countries but the pretense otherwise is what is annoying.
Aren’t the salaries higher as well? In Paris a pint is €7 on average (~£6) but according to Glassdoor the average SWE salary is only €53k/yr vs. £68k for London.
The killer is house and rental costs.
If you want a flat in central London you'll be paying half (or more?) of your £68k salary on rent after tax. In Canary Wharf you might not even be able to afford rent.
A £68k salary won't bring you close to being able to afford a mortgage, unless you have capital from other means e.g. inheritance.
I got a 2.5% salary increase this year. Because of inflation is should be > 8% (ONS has a recommendation). Complained about it and they still wouldn't increase it.
The property situation makes me far more angry. The UK construction and property industry completely lacks market discipline and quality regulations have been reduced (see: Grenfell where that literally killed people, but also the shocking build quality of most properties).
Then there was the restriction of homebuilding - deliberately engineered by successive governments in order to jack up property prices and parasitically extract a greater % of Londoner incomes via rents.
When the Tories talked about being Singapore-on-Thames I wished they meant build thousands of nice HDB apartment blocks and get tough on corruption but alas it seems what they actually meant was Moscow-on-Thames - make London an even bigger haven for oligarchs and dial up the corruption with more no bid government contracts to their mates.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bull...
As you can see, London rents are increasing at an accelerating rate.
Grenfell was a horrible tragedy. It was built as social housing in the 50’s or 60’s to a much higher standard (in terms of space and utility) than the so called luxury apartments of Canary Wharf.
The installation of cladding to modernise the building to meet modern energy efficiency standards and the apparent failure to make sure that work was completed within the regulations seems to be the cause of the catastrophic spread of the fire.
London planning is a complete mess. We waste millions on poorly executed projects to modernise social housing to save on CO2 emissions and at the same time we have the wealthy living in Victorian and older houses that are not allowed to install double glazing in order “to preserve the character of the property”.
London planning isn't an accidental mess. It's a deliberately engineered mess designed to let property/land owners and construction companies act as a parasite on the productive economy.
New York in the 1950s ran a very high level of immigration (GIs returning from the war) and had the strongest rent controls it ever had. Neither property prices nor rents rose very much.
London only passed the population threshold it reached in 1939 in 2015 - LONG after rents and property prices had been jacked up to eye watering levels.
Building social housing isn't hard, it just requires a government that operates on behalf of the working classes (who want a roof over their head) rather than land owners (who will try to stymie that process in every way they can in order to jack up rents and asset valuations).
With Singapore you could argue that immigration is a key issue with their rising rents because proportionally it's so much higher than the UK, they make very efficient use of land and they are very much more space deprived.
In the UK it's not an issue with immigration because other variables override it.
That is unless somebody is really in the mood to indirectly take the issue to a xenophobic or a racist place on behalf of a few populist property oligarchs looking for an easy scapegoat.
>> In the UK it's not an issue with immigration because other variables override it.
Care to name some? I guess you could say that UK housing is "inefficient" but again, I'm not sure making people live in tower blocks just so that more people from other countries can move here is all that fair of a solution, or if it is what people are proposing at least make it explicit and have it as a party policy that people can vote on.
TBH property oligarchs would favour high migration because of the effect it has on property values and rents.
The only forcing going on in London is handing over between 30-50% of your paycheck just to have a roof over your head.
Nobody would have to be forced to live in an apartment. You just have to build them and people will rent or buy them.
As I said, unless you want to take this to a racist place it's not an issue of immigration. Not in the UK anyway.
>TBH property oligarchs would favour high migration
Yes, thats why the Tory party effectively used xenophobia to garner votes while simultaneously increasing net migration to the UK. It was all about throwing a racist bone to their voters who were heavily swayed towards UKIP before betraying them.
That makes it sound as if it's 600k each year. It isn't - that's the figure for 2022. The figure for 2019 is 180k. Supposedly, the 2022 figure is inflated by official programmes encouraging immigration from Hong Kong and Ukraine.
I look forward to the figure for 2024 being -800k or so to even things out but I won't hold my breath.
All the while charging extremely high tax rates that get distributed to who knows what, the war on Ukraine, maybe.
A fluid ounce is based on avoirdupois, which isn't "imperial", so it didn't have to be abandoned. I think pints, quarts and gallons, all being based on the pint, are the only measures that differ significantly between the US and the UK.
I would say it's pollution, crime and lack of avenues for small kids.
I was living on a skyscraper and the amount of black dust I was removing from next to the windows was mind-blowing. I still remember moving 1hr out of London and feeling like I was breathing again. Not what I wanted for my kids.
The amount of stabbing and theft going on was pretty crazy. It was all around you. Some parks are ok and touristy, some parks are straight up dodgy and you run into drugged up, drunk people, (homeless?) people harassing you.
There are almost no kids around so not super easy to find friends for your kids. Nurseries are small and crowded because real estate is at a premium.
Again, moving out from the city fixed all the problems. Town life in the UK is actually pretty great. Sure you will miss on the main pros of London, events and networking.
I'd recommend finding a nice town commuting distance from London to reap the most benefits.
What are these?
Still, flying from London to somewhere else or taking a train to go outside, the difference in air quality before and after was noticeable.
London is an expensive city, you’ll need several million pounds for a decent family home but if you can afford it it’s an absolutely fantastic place to live.
Unfortunately the lack of affordable housing makes it less likely to be so in the long term.
Arguably it is developments like Canary Wharf and the associated planning concessions that have fuelled the London property market to make it practically unaffordable for the vast majority of people that do the real work.
Sports: neither spectator nor participation sports are a London speciality.
Clubs: if that means nightclubs, Manchester had a much better club-scene than London when I lived there (mid 90s). I'm too old for clubbing now!
Museums and architecture: people visit museums and gawp at architecture when they're visiting a place. Once you've seen a museum, you've seen it. Sure, it's pleasant to live among nice buildings; but most of the London cityscape is not anything I'd call architecture.
I lived in Central London for 20 years. I hated it for 17 of those years. It takes an hour to get across town on the (stinking) underground, which is the quickest way. Traffic is the most-aggressive of any place that I've driven in the UK. People are unfriendly; nobody lives in London to make friends, they live in London to make money. Everyone's in a hurry, presumably because they want to make a lot of money so they can leave.
It has such a great mix of things – you are constantly surrounded by history and there is always something going on.
Just not true. I grew up in a 4 bed house in a zone 4 area where such houses still go for under a million, especially if you're willing to do a bit of work.
It's a perfectly nice area, good schools, parks and trees, 30min train to central, what more could a normal family want?
I grew up in Hartlepool (North East of England), moved to Australia when I was 19 and I'm 35 now.
I moved because I was stabbed, and can't count on one hand how many times I'd been assaulted and mugged in the 10 years prior. To hear the rest of the country is heading in a similar direction is a horrid reflection on the state of affairs in the UK.
Like always, it'll be some where in the middle.
The city isn't a single place - it's a whole load of historical towns and neighbourhoods joined together. Experiences vary.
Sure, because average salaries are also much lower than in the US.
I know Ealing and things are pretty pricey nowadays.
It wasn't the one thing that made me loathe living in London though, it was more like death by a thousand cuts. It ground me down you could say.
I visited again this past Christmas for a few days, the first time I was in town just as a tourist. I can definitely see the appeal when you're staying just a few nights, it's a good tourist town, but living there just wasn't for me.
I only go in to the centre to go to fancy bars and restaurants for date nights etc., or for other touristy stuff.
Total Number of Dwellings and Net Additional Dwellings, Borough https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/net-additional-dwellings-...
It shows 614,474 net new dwellings between 2001/02 and 2021/22. Unfortunately, they don't appear to collect data on floor space at all. So this is less informative than it could be.
The number of residents per dwelling has gone up from 2.4 to 2.5. between 2001 and 2020.
It's mostly offices only in the City and Canary Wharf.
Is there any data showing that if we let loose and build a ton of housing that purchase prices and (especially) rents will reduce significantly? It's intuitively true but all the cities you can see a ton of construction in have also gone from "expensive" to "more expensive" at the same time.
Did any major city people want to live in got more affordable (or stayed affordable) in the last 10-20 years?
Increasing supply of housing in London, or increasing supply of cities with qualities similar to London so that demand for London decreases. Or reducing the number of people eligible to live in London.
Increasing prices for labor at the bottom is also an option. Again, reduce supply of labor by offering free education to obtain higher paid work, etc.
Note that there will always be a tier of society who are at the edge of affordable for any desirable area. Not that efforts should not be continuously be made, but as some people are helped, others will arrive to compete (due to the desirability).
The specific city might see then rise, instead. It’ll grow, and that generally makes prices go up.
2) A lot of the building has not necessarily been what you'd call affordable. While you will get some benefit moving wealthier people, expats, and short term business lets, etc. to new stuff, that's way less efficient for solving the problem of affordability than just building enough homes for the people who need them directly.
3) Too much of London's (new and existing) real estate is owned as an investment and goes mostly unoccupied. This is a scandal and there should be large tax penalties for unoccupied housing.
I think what you hear is true but it is not the whole truth. It would be easy to allow developers in to build new housing in a way that wouldn't help at all (but would make them lots of money).
But I think the average could be misleading if the household size had gone up significantly in council homes, hiding a slightly falling household size in the private sector. But that's pure speculation.
Obviously making up the infrastructure and investment gap in other medium and large UK cities might make more sense. Most of the UK’s next 10-20 cities by size (at least) could probably take on a doubling or more in population while also becoming wealthier, easier to get around, and better overall for everyone who lives in them.
Just needs competent government and proper investment in the right places, which have sadly been far from forthcoming for a while now.
There are very pleasant and extremely livable high density cities (or areas within them) as well as many example of lower density urban and suburban environments that are awful.
Also, buildings are not really getting “ever denser and taller” except in the most extreme cases. In London, for example we’re usually talking about taking low density low quality housing or currently unused or underused ex-industrial land and turning it into higher density housing, offices, and retail. But this is not so high density that it icomes close to pushing the boundaries of what’s already known to be workable, especially when paired (as it usually is in London at least) with public space, local amenities, and transport upgrades.
At some point more people means quality of life has to go down.
Now, the UK's population does not even grow intrinsically, we're creating the problem by literally importing people.
London is nowhere near that. The relatively dense parts that suck to live in suck for other reasons or because of poor design (read: lack of care for the people who will live there from the designers/funders). Sprawl scales as badly, though it’s easier to pretend it doesn’t.
As for the rest of the UK: there’s even more opportunity to introduce well thought out density alongside infrastructure improvements and create a net benefit for everyone.
> we're creating the problem by literally importing people.
This is the opposite of how I see it. The UK could easily grow by properly investing in cities and infrastructure without eating into green space (and still meet climate goals).
Given the current unsettled world, we should be opening the doors to the smart and ambitious with a sensible but significant plan to increase population and have multiple globally important cities in say 20 years. Check out Canada for an (albeit incomplete and not without its challenges) example.
Net migration to the UK has been about 250k per year (with some variance) since 2000. I remember reading somewhere that 2/3 of that was to London.
So you'd need to add hundreds of thousands of homes per year just to break even. Instead much less than 100k are built, usually under 40k.
There's other reasons for the price and rent rises but this is one of the big ones.
Eyeballing from a chart here (https://www.plumplot.co.uk/London-house-prices.html)
- 1995 to 2010: 300% growth (10% p.a.)
- 2010 to 2023: 75% growth (4% p.a.)
I've enjoyed looking at these photos, but it also kinda makes me sad that there is such a massive drive to increase density in the city. I think I may be at a time of my life where I'm over being in or close to the capital.
I will admit the Shard is cool, but you are absolutely right about Lloyd's. Those of us of a certain age consider anything designed by Richard Rogers to look like the future we aspired to.
Now, there are a whole bunch of skyscrapers, few with character (e.g., Shard), and many pretty basic (alongside Bishopsgate).
Overall, London keeps on building in so many of its areas (Kings Cross, City, Nine Elms, Victoria), and it's nice to see. I just hope these won't sit empty...
So, if there's demand for housing, keep building housing until the demand dries up.
You've got Wembley - massively built up, loads of carparks gone and building in it's place. Then you've got the Millenium Dome, one big car park in 2007, one big car park in 2023.
I compared one set of before/after and was surprised how much has changed: all the buildings seem to have changed in that one... until I noticed I was comparing images from two different locations. :)
Fun fact: if you head east from there, things get pretty damn ghetto pretty quickly. Like, you don't want your car to break down, "projects"-level ghetto. Then it all fades away to the peculiar English joy of Essex. But make no mistake, there's some serious ghetto really close to the money.
Note also, this is the area that was bombed most heavily during the war due to its position to the east of town. The German bombers would drop their loads and turn around ASAP to minimize time exposed to AA fire. A septuagenarian I know who grew up there described it as a child's playground composed of a wonderland of overgrown, bombed out buildings.
For the rest see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest_points_in_Lond...
Most of London is flat because it's part of the estuary of a major river; the bedrock is buried under an awful lot of silt and clay.
Similarly in almost every photograph there is much less brown/grey space. Either empty spaces, or inner-city car-parks have been replaced by parks, or by new buildings.
I think this is reflected in the population history of the city. Since 2000 the city has grown from 7.2 million to 9.0 million - that's a good 20%, and London within the city limits (not that this is a great measure of city size) now actually had more population than New York.
Not to be confused with the [Ultra Low Emission Zone](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultra_Low_Emission_Zone) which also requires a fee to be paid to enter the city.
On paper, Paris is much smaller than London (2 million vs 9 million), but Île-de-France has 12 million, but that in turn is a more expansive measure than Greater London. Inner London has 3.5 million. But London is basically a couple of significant cities with loads of towns and dense urban area in between and surrounding; Paris is structured quite differently.
Although the OECD has them at almost the same size.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_metropolitan_areas_in_...
Open up Paris and London in two side by side windows in Google Maps, at an approximately similar scale, and look at the pale yellow areas (the bits Google considers as retail rather than residential). It looks like there's more of them, spread over a larger area, in Paris than London. Paris is visibly denser than London.
To the degree that the main characteristic of cities is that they are dense population centres, Paris has more of that than London.
London has a lot of high streets which feel fairly generically similar, because they're basically the same across the whole UK - the same shops, the same Greggs, the same Costa Coffees, the same Coral bookies, the same companies.
The main thing that make cities interesting to me is niche shops, restaurants and other experiences which are not sustainable without a large catchment area of potential customers. Density is important to enabling that; a huge spread-out urban area, like the Rhine-Ruhr metropolitan region, doesn't really deliver it.
I don't know if Paris has the same degree of niche experiences that London has. I lived in London for 15 years, I know it well and always enjoy myself every time I return, but I always enjoy my times in Paris too. Zurich, where I am now, is a very dull place compared to either.
All I was saying is London is bigger.
The Wembley changes have been repeated across many areas in East and West London, with some - but not quite as much - North and South.
London used to be primarily Victorian. Now it's primarily Victorian with growing areas of rectangular glass-and-concrete modern in-fill.
This area used to look like this:
https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@51.5167921,-0.2271653,3a,75y,...
Spin around by 180 and follow the road to see what's happening across London. With more on the way.