I think a one-time dividend is much more likely. A recurring dividend sends the wrong signal to Wall Street (we're no longer a growth company). A one-time dividend says something more like, "Yeah, we have a crap load of cash...here, have some."
To anyone who has made a lot of money off of AAPL in the past X months, I'm sure the dividend would be tiny in comparison. I don't see the point. I do think they should have a $0.01 dividend (see my other post).
A recurring dividend sends a signal that they are no longer a speculative fool's investment but a solid cash-cow.
A reasonable dividend (1% per yr) leaves more options open for a big acquisition in the future if they want, eg Sony, or Comcast, or Netflix (they can afford all three if they want). I highly doubt they'll blow the whole load in one shot.
If they're going to make an acquisition of that magnitude, then they should buy a controlling interest in Amazon.
They can afford a monthly dividend for the next year, and still buy 100% of Amazon.com.