If Lee hadn't gone to West Point and rubbed shoulders with all the right people, would he have gotten the job that made him famous? There were probably rank and file soldiers blown away in opening volleys who had more raw potential as military strategists than Lee, but were never given the opportunity because they didn't have the money, prestigious degree, and political connections.

Software has always been a special case because despite some naysayers, it is quite meritocratic compared to other fields. Your degree might boost your ability to get an interview, but in a good technical interview, the good coder without a degree is generally going to stand out from a bad coder even if they have a degree from a prestigious university.

I expect it to be an upside down parabola. From my experience, top performers in school were either very smart or worked very hard, or both - two skills necessary for software engineering achievement.

The other side of the parabola are smart kids who worked hard on things they found interesting, which just happened to not be school

I would definitely expect a high correlation between the top software engineering school and software engineering accomplishments, because there's a strong bias. If you want to achieve something in software engineering, most likely you'd want to go to a top school. I think it's the same for West point.