Am I truly out in left field on this?
You could take a boring remote job with more average pay out in Kansas if family were a priority and pay off a house in a year or two.
I've personally never had any interest in having kids. Whatever it is that makes kids appealing, I've never had it.
But I think I agree with you and I don't understand why I think I agree with you.
Kids do seem like a crazy financial decision today. But if we wanted to, we could for sure have a kid and get by. Plenty of people have plenty of kids on a lot less money.
Is it that we want to maintain our standard of living more than people did in the past? Plenty of poor people have plenty of kids in 1 bedroom apartments. Do we just demand more comfort today? Are we just more picky? Are kids just not worth what they used to be?
I don't think any of these answers are bad. I just think it's interesting.
FWIW, the things you give as examples are rounding-errors in our budget (though only two of our kids have cell phones so far); we don't have cable, pay $22/mo for streaming services, buy used video games, and pay an average of $60/mo for our phone bill. We spend over $300/mo on groceries for comparison.
I find it interesting that this is almost the only post in the entire thread that arrives at the need to do a little introspection.
Apparently, the ability to do that is much rarer these days than I thought.
I think this is a big part of it. As much social pressure as there is to have kids today, it seems reduced from how it was even a single generation ago.
Raising kids is expensive[1], time consuming, and in general a pain-in-the-ass. With reduced social (and even legal) pressure to stay married, and increased expectations of a career for women (without any accompanying reduced expectations for men), it's entirely unsurprising to myself that many opt-out of it.
1: Mandatory xkcd: https://xkcd.com/946/
What's your salary compared to the median household income in your area? How do other people make it work?