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Comment by _kbh_ | Hacker News Reader

> From that perspective, if you're Ukraine and confident that Russia went ballistic, then you will have a rock solid, "Russian friendly" government and do everything you can so that Russia attacks Kazakhstan instead.

I think Russia would have attacked and taken over Ukraine either way (either by political force or military might) and that the plan was always to do this.

I don’t think Ukraine could have avoided this fate by not keeping its belongings its car.

Sometimes cars get broken into anyway, and I think this is that case.

I think it’s very telling that the victory article Russian media posted then deleted suddenly on what would be the 4 or 5th day of the war talked heavily about writing historical wrongs (Ukraines independence) and didn’t really mention a coup or NATO or anything like that.

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As far as I remember, the victory article Russian media posted then deleted suddently, also did not really mention annexing Ukraine or even parts of it. I suggest you dust off that text and re-read it.

Now that is off the table as Russia has formally included large part of Ukrainian coast into Russian Federation.

Indeed there is an example of Belarus, which is a smaller country that is still independent (in the sense that it has its own statehood, laws and international relations) and intact. If that is what you mean by independence, then if Belarus pulls it, Ukraine could also.

If by independence you mean the ability to persistently ignore your largest, trigger happy neighbour concerns - indeed such independence was likely doomed from the start. That's the "flashing jewelry" part for you.

And again, I'm not really talking about personal choices (maybe Ukraine did have to go through Second Independence War like USA did), but about the desirability of such scenario to be copied by other countries.

> Now that is off the table as Russia has formally included large part of Ukrainian coast into Russian Federation.

That was off the table in 2014 when they did the exact same thing to Crimea, so theres no real change there, not that it changes the status of any of the territory they still remain areas of Ukraine (like Crimea) they are just temporarily occupied.

> If by independence you mean the ability to persistently ignore your largest, trigger happy neighbour concerns - indeed such independence was likely doomed from the start. That's the "flashing jewelry" part for you.

Independence means the right to choose whatever you want for your alliance. Which Ukraine has the right to do.

> And again, I'm not really talking about personal choices (maybe Ukraine did have to go through Second Independence War like USA did), but about the desirability of such scenario to be copied by other countries.

I think it should be desirable for other countries to be independent and not subjugated by their bigger neighbours.

Of course, nobody was going to give Crimea to them in this case. But they could end up with Medvedchuk and all the remaining regions, some of them in federative state. The thing is, every next option they get is progressively worse.

> it should be desirable for other countries to be independent

So you are OK with some other people dying so that you have a pleasant feeling about them. Much like when you read in a newspaper how a brave tourist has resisted the thugs who tried to rob him. But the actual good advice to tourists is to stay out of trouble, and if it is already happening, try not to die by complying.

Anything that got you in a brawl with local thugs over your fancy camera is bad advice.

It's not that I think countries should not be independent and get subjugated by their bigger neighbours. It's just they should find a way to do this in a smart fashion and without full scale war. Ukraine is actually getting subjugated by their bigger neighbour right now. The policy you recommend led to an outcome that you find undesirable. Then you say the policy is not to blame, the outcome could not be avoided in the first place.

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