I think one of your major mistakes is taking Russias and Putins word at face value and not accounting for the fact that they rarely keep any promises / agreements they have if it doesn’t serve them.

Just see the Budapest memorandum as a great example, the Budapest memorandum was a victory for the world and it requires Russia to do was to not invade Ukraine

But they couldn’t stick to it.

Another good example is the likely deal between Yevgeny Prigozhin and Putin after the failed coup attempt, he then a handful of months later dies in a plane crash.