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It was explained to me by local non-profit folks in the know that Amazon's RTO decisions need to be understood in the context of downtown Seattle real estate politics. Amazon brings a lot of people downtown -- fueling local businesses -- and as a consequence the city council provides Amazon a huge amount of leeway and power -- even siding with Amazon against the community. Consequently, if Amazon doesn't continue to publicly advocate for RTO, then the city council will have no reason to continue with the red carpet treatment which, concretely, means increased taxation and compliance requirements.

So, there is a significant game theory component to Amazon's RTO position that can't be discussed publicly.

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I imagine Amazon could downsize their downtown Seattle footprint to match their current needs, face increased taxes, and still come out ahead.

This seems like mostly an attrition play.

The capital class also despises the labor class. I wouldn't down-play the pure spite motive, either.

These sort of red carpets go far beyond taxation.

Things like some executives wife gets pulled over drunk and the police give her a ride home and a warning. The son gets caught holding and the case disappears. Homeless people in their neighborhood get told to move along to your neighborhood. That sort of thing.

That's basic inequality. Amazon execs will remain rich regardless of whether Amazon has a higher city tax bill.

> That's basic inequality.

It isn't. Beat cops probably aren't going to take your bribe, you have to pre-bribe the community like Amazon has so you are "too big to fail" in a sense. It's like the company town of old but built with public dollars.

They get the last laugh after years of tech worker compensation going bonkers and having to compensate those plebs.

Seattle would fight that tooth and nail. Amazon could simply say they are thinking of withdrawing from the city and Seattle would throw tax breaks at them that would make NYC's concessions to amazon look pale in comparison. See Boeing as an example. Cannot have an exodus of talent, that is bad news bears for any major city (see Detroit as a historic example)

Nope, any noise of tax break to super rich company like Amazon in politically charged city like Seattle will raise huge public outcry and no one really want that.

Another thing to understand in asking RTO Amazon gets implicit support of city/builders/ tons of other vendors. Further it should be no surprise (but it is!) that multiple hundreds of thousand dollar a year earning employees are going to get no sympathy on their plight from public at large. So why should CEO care at all on this issue.

Plus, it's hard for execs to lie to your face over a recorded zoom call.

I'm sorry I mean be wrong about the details.

// there is a significant game theory component

Funny, I read your first paragraph and thought it doesn't make sense from game-theory point of view. If Amazon wants to lower city council's power over it, the easiest thing it can do is not be dependent on Seattle (ie - if your workforce is distributed, Seattle is irrelevant)

Amazon is already deeply dependent on Seattle. US-WEST-1 is distributed across 13 or more locations in downtown Seattle. They have 4 or 5 skyscrapers there as well. There is a huge population of employees living in the area.

They are dependent on Seattle and Seattle has a reciprocal dependency on Amazon. "Just" adopting a distributed workforce position means putting a large investment in real estate at risk. Why would they do that?

I've heard that too, but I can't imagine anybody in a city administration having enough juice to make a CEO care at all. How would that conversation go?

I always understood the reasoning to be that companies don't want the value of their real estate or 10-year leases to drop, which low occupancy portends.

For anyone familiar with Seattle politics, this is absurd. The city council has been openly antagonistic to Amazon for the better part of a decade.

Yes, easy evidence is the passage of this tax:

https://www.seattle.gov/city-finance/business-taxes-and-lice...

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