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Comment by ChumpGPT | Hacker News Reader

I was always under the impression that when they attack Taiwan, DPRK will move on South Korea (with Chinese Army as support). It's not just going to be a Naval War, it will be all out. The Chinese are almost encircled, they won't let it close on them. There will be war....that's a guarantee.

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The Chinese are no more encircled than any 1b population nation holding trillions of dollars in trade, debt and assets internationally. This is specious. They haven't conducted a war outside their immediate borders for a very long time, and they aren't massing troops at the edges. Daily ritualised flights over TW and sending ships to the islands down by the Phillipines is totally different to conducting invasive offensive warfare across land borders.

There are hundreds of satellites in orbit worldwide, Leo and geo. You think they could hide the materiel to conduct this kind of warfare?

Ukraine was warned by the US leading up to the invasion. They just refused to believe it.

When the US declares there is risk and brings people home from Korea and Taiwan, and moves the fleet into region for more than freedom of the seas and wargames manoeuvres i will believe there is sonething here.

If you want a canary in the coalmine, look at Vietnam. There's no love lost. If they muscle up, something is happening.

The Russian military buildup on Ukraine's borders was obvious and believable, no one had a hard time seeing the Russians were going to invade. What really had the Ukrainian regime on the precipice, and was a harder sell in the lead-up to Z-day, was the internal coup attempt that would be coupled with it.

I suspect it’ll be Russia moving on old Soviet states, Iran on Israel and Iraq, North Korea on south, and China on Taiwan to create a global war on so many fronts the west can’t contain any of it. The goal will be less about defeating the west and more about breaking the image of unassailability and forcefully assert a multipolar world order.

God help us all. Although, it's been perpetual war in the middle east since forever, Africa is a shit show, and at least one of the nations you mention is independently nuclear armed so the outcome will be interesting to say the least.

Two of your proposed engagements would echo the iran-iraq conflict for body count because they will be contested on sea and land, and at great cost to the aggressor. The last time Korea was fought over approximately 5m troops were committed. I guess that soaks up a lot of china's unemployed youth but I doubt they will be happy about it.

There are no cheap victories here. Once the more modern stocks of weapons runs out, it's slings and arrows.

Henry Kissinger will fix it. Don't worry.

>I suspect it’ll be Russia moving on old Soviet states.

Russia doesn't want to rebuild the Soviet Union. They want to rebuild the Russian Empire. The Baltic countries, Finland, and (all of) Ukraine were parts of the Russian Empire and are more likely to be invaded that ex-USSR states like Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Putin sees himself as Peter the Great and not a "dirty little Georgian peasant" like Stalin.

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