It’s one of those things you really have no control over. You just argue as persuasively as you can, but end of the day, your boss gets the final decision, and gets to judge your performance. When their brilliant plan fails, they are going to blame you—-not necessarily out of any malice, but just because they are in no epistemic position to realize what just happened.

I actually have a lot of sympathy for management. If I make a mistake as a programmer, it’s just a bug fix and a new unit test. If they make a mistake, someone’s whole life is plunged into crisis. The stakes are way higher AND it’s way harder to make the right call.