The handle varies from 0 to full-strength, but the magnitude of the tangent vector stays constant. This means the handle doesn't decide the magnitude. Tracing the path in your head to visualize the changing tangent vectors would mean visualizing a competition between t^2, (1-t)^2t, and (1-t)^3, which I find difficult, even with some calculus knowledge.
As a bezier is just repeated interpolations, the tangents and their lengths can be derived from the intermediate interpolations [1]. This means that if you split a bezier near an existing control point, the new point will have wildly unbalanced tangents on both sides, and yet, connect into the exact same cubic curve.
So both your intuition and your confidence in it are... wrong.