Imagine winning the online bet after it drops to < 5% confidence. Yum.

Why are we supposed to believe this new paper? Realistically there’s nothing here. This is an announcement of an announcement.

All we can do is speculate. And I speculate that if there were a room temperature superconductor, it would have been proven in the first paper. That’s the point of a paper.

EDIT: actually it’s 1%, so you’d 100x your money: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18177/room-temp-supercon...