FM radio wave-based early earthquake detection (2021)
semanticscholar.org
semanticscholar.org
The strength of carriers on certain bands could be monitored like a sort of mesh network and changes in signal strength etc. that would likely be the signature of a pending earthquake could be quickly identified.
I kid I kid, I love ham radio. Great fun for camping/off-road trips trying out all the local repeaters of that area. Plus a nice safety backup factor.
Edit: the solar panel is on top of the box. /s
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[1] https://www.armoloq.com/tpa-857b
[2] https://highgroundgear.com/products/instant-access-prc-117g-...
[3] https://dakotalithium.com/product/dakota-lithium-12v-10ah-ba...
AAA isn't going to come help you for less than $500+ (actually probably $1000) somewhere in death valley.
The community around something like ham radio, although technically not even a community, makes me think I'd get neighborly type help much easier, even if it took someone's entire afternoon to help.
Your only options are asking someone else driving by (happens 2-3x a day on some roads), asking ham radio and seeing if anyone in a repeater radius is feeling helpful, or limping to a main road slowly.
Obviously circumstances vary. When I was in death valley for 9 days, I had enough supplies to sit for 14. So if I needed help on day 2, I can give a helpful sincere ham radio operator a chance to help. If another car passed me in that time frame, I'd talk with them and setup some kind of 'hey, check on me on your way back' system if they were returning this way. And so on.
If I had a breakdown with 36 hours of water remaining, I'd treat things pretty differently and possibly be using ham to get them to relay emergency info.. since technically that's my only choice.. I own an android without sat service and don't any satellite product.
I personally think you can trust ham radio for a favor pretty well. And for an emergency even more so.
Trouble is that in big natural disasters most infrastructure is down and frankly even if you find an AR operator he/she's likely without power so won't be much help. Nevertheless, there are many historical instances where AR has been of considerable help in emergencies. In those instances functioning stations, which are often on the periphery of disasters act as relay stations and conduits to official help.
See my reply to amatecha.
I got the idea that amateur radio could be useful with monitoring the changes to RF transmissions several decades ago after I read a paper that transmissions in the ELF band (3 - 30kHz) were affected by the stresses built up in the earth before an earthquake commenced. These EM effects are thought to be caused by stresses in heavy rock such as granite which generate a piezoelectric-like field and or that distortions of the earth's magnetic field occur around areas under stress.
The ELF band is suggested because it's extremely stable with almost no effects from the ionosphere, thus changes to any RF carrier in this band would be due to fields generated by quakes (and the signal generated by stress buildup wouldn't be lost in the ionospheric noise as it is with higher frequency bands).
My reasoning went thus: amateurs are spread widely across the globe and if they set up a mesh network of ELF transmissions amateur stations could then monitor the mesh transmissions for changes in signal strength, etc. This would be done automatically 24/7. Any deviation would set off a trigger, and given the mesh nature of the network, the location where the path distortion occurred could then be triangulated. It's also my understanding that the EM effects caused by stressed rock can occur days or perhaps weeks before a quake, thus it could be an effective early warning system.
It seemed to me that geological services such as the USGS have probably thought along these lines but haven't done much further research because it would be necessary to set up thousands of monitoring stations across the globe and given that the science is still inconclusive and not fully settled then funding would likely not be forthcoming. That could be solved if amateurs became involved as their stations are already established.
I envisioned amateurs forming a sort of loose partnership between geological services such as the USGS for the purpose (many countries have such a service). Even before any monitoring service was established, radio amateurs could be involved in the research, Establishing experimental tests etc. would be comparatively straightforward given their network of stations.
I passed the ideas by the local amateur group, VK2, where I am on several occasions, the last time was after the 9.1 magnitude quake/tsunami in Sumatra Indonesia on Boxing Day in 2004 but I got little interest which left me somewhat disappointed.
Incidentally, I used to have an amateur license so that's what gave me the idea to link amateurs with geological services.
I still reckon it's a good idea, even if the research is inconclusive (at least there's little doubt that earthquakes do actually cause electromagnetic effects—witness this story (and there are many more such instances), Thus if EM effects exist then it seems logical to me that we ought to be able to detect them as we do with other EM phenomena).
Australia covers an enormous area almost the size of the US or Europe and even the state of NSW is huge so seismic activity varies widely from place to place. Generally though Australia is very lucky in that its seismic activity is very low—unlike New Zealand which is the next landmass in the Pacific which is very high.
In recent years the only significant earthquake in NSW was in the coastal city of Newcastle in 1989 and over a dozen people were killed. When I was a kid decades ago I lived in the Blue Mountains of NSW which is about 120 miles from Newcastle and I experiencd an earthquake and I thought the house would collapse but luckily it did not (I was in bed and when it started I had difficulty walking across my bedroom the floor shook so much). It's the earthquake in the list in the link below marked 'Robertson and Bowral' with a magnitude of 5.5.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1989_Newcastle_earthquake
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes_in_Austr...
How long before a quake do you think something theoretically measurable occurs, and what might that thing be? Unlike the EM effects on the time scale you describe which we might readily figure out how to monitor, for my question I'm not limiting the scope of answers to just those things that are potentially practical to detect with current technology! Any physical change is fair game as a response. For example, maybe an answer is the likes of "X phenomenon probably has an inflection point exactly halfway between each quake, so potentially years of advanced notice if only we had a way to detect it" or some such.
I don't know, I'm not a geologist, vulcanologist nor any type of earth scientist.
Moreover, I reckon it'd be impossible to generalize as every instance would be different. The only thing one could say in the absence of data would be that EM effects would build up over time to a tipping point and then quickky release like a sawtooth waveform but if you want more accurate info then ask the experts.
The point I was making was that because of stresses on rock forces build up and produce EM waves before the tipping point occurs. It's detecting the build-up before its release that has the potential to save people.
I've lost track of those original papers that influenced me. If anyone comes across them I'd like the references.
Wouldn’t the first step be to settle the science then?
Why would you need a big network to do that instead of just a dedicated experimental site in earthquake prone area? Wouldn’t that be enough to prove if there is a signal?
My understanding is that ELF transmitters are kind of a big deal and require a lot of money to run. Am I wrong on that? Or you are planning to monitor naturally occuring ELF signals?
That was actually my suggestion.
The amateur radio service is defined as an experimental service so by its nature it involves all radio amateurs if they're interested—they'd pay for any equipment that was needed, not the government.
Earthquakes are unpredictable and it'd be very difficult to guarantee there would be enough AR stations equipped with monitoring equipment sufficient to accurately triangulate the location of the electromagnetic disturbance. It's a voluntary service so to be effective you'd involve as many as possible (and do so everywhere).
The fact that the science is still unresolved is partially because there isn't enough scientific monitoring equipment in the right place at the right time. The whole purpose of my proposal was to try and overcome that limitation.
ELF transmissions are a big deal when one is trying to communicate with submarines where the seawater adds hugely to the path-loss. Any such monitoring service would likely only use several Hz bandwidth so one should be able achieve a reasonable signal-to-noise ratio with limited power (like Voyager does now to communicate with earth).
BTW, there's already an amateur band a 2200 metres (135.7 - 137.8 kHz). which is well below the AM broadcast band. Whether it's low enough in frequency needs investigation. In fact, it would be necessary to select the 'ideal' band before any service could commence (that would be part of the scientific investigation).
At the moment we have good results for predicting earthquakes (not forecasting) that should be able to warn the residents a few days before the impending major earthquake. Surprisingly, the results are consistent based on offline seismic sensors data of the recent Turkeys, New Zealand, Indonesia and Philippines earthquakes. Hopefully we can reliably repeat the early detection capability with the real-time data, if fundings are available. If anyone know how to approach Japan government (or Turkish, NZ, etc) for funding the system please let me know in the comments.
[1]Do low-cost seismographs perform well enough for your network? An overview of laboratory tests and field observations of the OSOP Raspberry Shake 4D:
https://raspberryshake.org/news/peer-reviews/do-low-cost-sei...
[2] Big Data Seismology:
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2021...
https://jeoloji.itu.edu.tr/en/staff/academic-staff http://www.koeri.boun.edu.tr/new/en
I've been to ITU once before around ten years ago but not to the Geology Engineering department. If I remember correctly, at the time they're building a new HPC cluster mainly for earthquake forecasting and prediction. Will try to contact them, perhaps next time I go to Istanbul I can pay them and Boğaziçi Kandilli Institute a visit.
Also if there's person or company outside academia interested on the research it'll be good because Tübitak has funding for international research and innovation. Perhaps we can have joint industry and academia collaboration to built real-time monitoring systems for testing the new earthquake prediction scheme.
See my comment to johnythree.
Starting with adding a long range wireless or cellular connection so it can be away from human activity, also I've wanted to improve the timestamp accuracy to well beyond +-10ms and I'm pretty sure it can be done with a tcxo and a GPS receiver.
I also think an actual raspberry pi isn't strictly needed and so the power consumption can be reduced a bit by sticking to microcontrollers
The geophone sensor used is really interesting, although I guess by being so small it could miss very low frequency oscillations. Can experts confirm?
Might be this or a very similar one: https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/DTCC-Vertical-Geophon...
My thinking is along the (fault) lines of earthquake lights, maybe not related to the Hessdalen lights.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hessdalen_lights
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earthquake_light
Some videos of the Hessdalen lights:
https://old.hessdalen.org/pict/2022/2022_04_18_00_21_45_hess...
https://old.hessdalen.org/pict/2023/2023_01_01_19_50_00_hess...
https://old.hessdalen.org/pict/2023/2023_01_02_18_30_27_hess...
I guess they used FM because existing FM diffusion had mandated the creation of lot of FM emitters (one every 70 miles/100 km) so it enables to cover a wide area.
Of coarse, that's only speculation on my part. Again, this needs further scientific investigation, and again amateurs could be helpful. The FM band is 88-108MHz but the amateur bands of 50-54MHz (6m) and 144-148MHz (2m) could be used as a feasibility study (the characteristics of those bands ought to be close enough to evaluate the idea).
There seems to be little point in using Ham transmitters when there are a large number of very powerful Military transmitters already operating in the VLF band.
Plus the monitors wouldn't need to be hams, just normal Shortwave listeners and/or hobbyists..
And as discussed previously, there already are extensive networks which use signals from military VLF transmitters to monitor for "Sudden Ionospheric Disturbances" (SID)
see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_ionospheric_disturbance.
You don't specify how your network would work, but it sounds like it would be very similar to the professional SID studies being carried out by various universities world wide.
To my knowledge, no military TXes are being used for that purpose. I did outline how the system might work, that is similar to the structure of cellular phones. Moreover, there's no indication there's enough military TXes around to allow for accurate triangulation, nor is there any indication or guarantee that the military will have them running 24/7, which is a prerequisite.
SID is all very well and to be welcomed but someone or entity has to run the service after the science (via, say, SID) has been established. Any entity running such a scheme has to work across national boundaries—has to be international. Chances of that happening anytime soon other than through AR are just fanciful. AR has a long history in civil defense and emergencies and has international representation through the IARU https://www.iaru.org/ which has been around just on a century and has representation at the ITU in Geneva. It's in a pivotal position to argue the case internationally.
If you've a better, more practical solution then let's hear about it.
The challenge is prediction.
There are a couple of startups that appear to be operating in this area with similar(ish) concepts to those described in the link.
precursor-spc.com - space based monitoring of atmospheric conditions, providing space weather forecasts and, apparently, earthquake prediction. Ionoterra - ground based monitoring of the ionosphere
I'm skeptical. If these companies were truly on to something then they would be selling their services to all the governments and would be household names.
As a example, the detection system in Japan is linked to the Shinkansen control system, and trains will start emergency braking immediately. It reduces speed enough that there have been no earthquake fatalities resulting from Shinkansen derailments.
When you see the timestamp on the CCTV cameras, you could see that close to the epicenter, the earthquake hit around 23:11 in Marrakech, and in Casablanca, it reached us at around 23:13, I think a 2 minutes headsup is enough time for people get up and haul it outside.
I don't see it -- what's the connection? Earthquakes happen when stress on a tectonic plate border exceeds (I think?) the static friction that was holding it in place. What's the leap from "pent up physical stress approaching a breaking point" to "has a measurable impact/effect on frequency modulation"?
[1] https://academic.oup.com/gji/article/180/2/858/690652?login=...