I've seen 2 articles in the last day about this topic with clickbait misinformation from sites I would expect to be more accurate... Including talking about how a "free game" was going to cost a developer millions... and how "independent developers" will be bankrupt...
But how? The fee page and FAQ [1] state "will apply to games made with Unity Personal and Unity Plus that have made $200,000 USD or more in the last 12 months".. If you are distributing a free game, by definition, you made no revenue for the game and you pay nothing to Unity. Key point: the metric is PER game... so it's not like your $5 game with 200k revenue and 200k installs will trigger your separate FREE game to cost 5 million in damages.
If you are an "independent" developer, or even a team of 5, then the $2k/seat-year Pro license means the threshold is now $1million... pay 2-10k/year upfront to pocket an extra 800k? These seem like a no-brainer...
Now, I can see this being an issue for studios that invested heavily in Unity with dozens or hundreds of developers.. and I appreciate discussion on this topic... I'd love to see more realistic reactions and discussions... and less "abandon ship" (like this article) and I-didn't-read-the-memo knee-jerk reaction stories for attention out there right now.
(And I know some of the early concern was download-bombing, but they have addressed that, and most of the articles I read didn't cover that explicitly)