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But lottery-ticket options trading is done all the time. The fact that the options expire the next day is part of the strategy (because before that, the options cost more). $20k might sound like a big stake but you don't know the size of the trader's portfolio, it might be 0.01% of it, and they didn't stand to lose the whole thing necessarily.

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All true in the abstract. But doing it the day before an acquisition is always gonna earn you a door knock, even if you're a serial gambler.

Yeah, this is not that suspicious IMO. The trade was opened yesterday when Splunk was at $119. They just needed a 7% gain by Friday to be profitable on their $127 calls. Traders make those kind of gambles all the time.

Not at this volume. Also, typically they do it for indices and typically based on some event (e.g., rate announcement), not on a heels of an unknown acquisition.

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