Generally speaking, you should absolutely not judge a stocks performance on such a short time horizon. It's pretty much meaningless. That being said, I would take the bet that those IPOs mark the beginning of the end of the bubble in tech / ai stocks.

I really wish more people focused just on long term holding - read about Warren Buffett etc. It's boring as hell, but it works.

Speaking of which - is there a Hacker News equivalent for Investing ?