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The best signal pointing we are not in a tech bubble is the amount of people talking about we are in a bubble. On a real bubble only a small minority (often ignored, despised or even ridiculed by the maiority) think there is a bubble. I don't see this happening now.

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I'd argue the opposite.

Agreed -- have people no memory or perspective of the housing bubble? "Get in now or you'll be priced out of the market forever! Real estate never goes down!" RE agents courted sellers and ignored buyers.

I often remember the Emerson quote, "The louder he talked of his honor, the faster we counted our spoons." Sometimes an uptick in everything-is-A-OK bluster is a pretty good indicator that things are about to crater.

I agree. My point is that when big bubbles are forming there is a almost general consensus that it is a good and secure investment and everybody should get into it. There is not much evidence to argue against it and the minority that have the ability/vision to perceive it are considered pessimists by the majority. Today it seems to be at least 50/50, those who believe in a tech bubble and those who don't. This is too much people believing it is a bubble for it to really be. So my guess is it isn't.

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