The Russian air force has taken massive losses, both in terms of planes and pilots, but it also continues to exist, from a non-generous and factual perspective.
Can’t exactly fly combat sorties when the whole country is littered in NASAM and Patriot systems
So, tellingly, the Russian air force failed to establish supremacy over Ukraine when Ukraine fielded only Soviet-era aircraft and anti-air (and in comparatively small numbers). Which strongly suggests that the Russian Air Force is not a particularly good opponent either.
But critically, the Ukrainian Air Force continues to exist as a fleet-in-being. So while it may not currently be capable of much force projection (I would argue that the Russian air force is also not capable of much force projection against a serious adversary), it does force its adversary to strategically deploy anti-air.
As Russian anti-air systems become depleted (which may be sooner or may be later, but due to the rapid destruction of S-400 systems of late, my money is on sooner), it is quite possible that the Ukrainian air force will play a larger role, especially given that training on F-16s commence in a handful of weeks.
The CNA and RUSI have both released excellent reports on the VKS challenges and performance.
SEAD/DEAD missions seem to be much harder than the US has made them look in the past (granted against much weaker GBADs than Ukraine or Russia have).
https://www.cna.org/reports/2023/04/Russian-Combat-Air-Stren...
[1] https://balloonstodrones.com/2022/10/19/looking-back-at-iraq...
Last I checked, they literally had more trainer aircraft than actual combat jets left.
It’s amazing that such a small airforce manages to prevent russia from gaining air superiority and even manages to effectively conduct sorties isn’t it.
Just shows you how different it is when your the invading force. russias airforce losses largely outsize Ukraines even though Ukraine has a smaller airforce and they older planes.
You have named two countries with credible and substantial air forces. Critically, both the Algerian air force and Chilean air force exist (the claim that I initially defended). Indeed, both Chile and Algeria have similarly-sized economies to Ukraine, and both countries operate sizeable air forces relative to other countries in South America and North Africa.
It is worth noting that the Ukrainian air force has 50+ F-16s scheduled for delivery in the near future.
>> Last I checked, they literally had more trainer aircraft than actual combat jets left.
They did have a relatively impressive number of L-39 jet trainers at the beginning of the war, as you alluded to. It is difficult to assess how many have survived the war. I would presume that you are correct to estimate that trainer aircraft have a lower attrition rate than combat jets during war.
Some rankings list Algeria right below Russia, and above Spain and Canada in terms of air power, and Chile is ranked above Korea and Norway.
https://www.wdmma.org/ranking.php
Also, apparently that's all it takes to ground the self-described second army of the world.
I'm not sure you thought your argument through.