This part stood out to me as I've seen this mentioned several times on HN in the past.
https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&que...
Speaking at a Milken Institute panel in Los Angeles, Moulton said: “One of the interesting ideas that’s been floated out there for deterrence is just making it very clear to the Chinese that if you invade Taiwan, we’re going to blow up TSMC.” He continued: “I just throw that out not because that’s necessarily the best strategy, but because it’s an example of the debate that’s out there. And of course, the Taiwanese really don’t like this idea.” [1]
[1]: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/05/12/microchip...
It is more of a scorched earth plan. There isn't much of interest to US beyond TSMC. As long as it doesn't fall in hand of China, rest it will be OK to loose.
The Americans don’t really care that much about TSMC. Its fabs are highly dependent on parts, material, etc from more secured countries, which is by design, or they would have never allowed semiconductor industries to be setup in Korea, Japan, and Taiwan. They have much of the process locked up and a chip only gets made via free trade from multiple countries (with a lot of fate keeping by key allies, like the Dutch).
My understanding of the timeline/causation in 1950 is the other way around. Initially China was only going to offer largely moral support to North Korea. On June 27 the U.S. Seventh Fleet was sent to the Taiwan Strait to prevent PRC from taking Taiwan. This was a factor in China's decision to enter the Korean War in October.
https://history.state.gov/milestones/1953-1960/taiwan-strait...
> U.S. policy toward East Asia in the early Cold War contributed to the tensions in the Taiwan Strait. In late 1949 and early 1950, American officials were prepared to let PRC forces cross the Strait and defeat Chiang, but after the outbreak of the Korean War in June 1950, the United States sent its Seventh Fleet into the Taiwan Strait to prevent the Korean conflict from spreading south. The appearance of the Seventh Fleet angered the Chinese Communists, who transferred their troops poised for an invasion of Taiwan to the Korean front. This served to delay military conflict in the Strait until the United States withdrew its fleet after the Korean War.
http://www.inquiriesjournal.com/articles/1069/explaining-chi...
> In fact, at the initial stage, China took a passive response to the situation in North Korea. Besides moral support for Kim, the only material support provided by Beijing at the time was to send approximately 14,000 Korean Chinese who were then serving in the PLA back to Korea.8 However, three subsequent events dramatically changed Beijing’s attitudes.
> The first is that on June 27, the U.S. Seventh Fleet was sent to the Taiwan Strait to ‘neutralise’ the situation. ...
The USA completely expected Taiwan to fall to the communists before the Korean War, and they were pretty untrusting of Chiang Kai Shek at the time, they didn’t really care. But after the Korean War started, that sentiment transformed overnight into “Taiwan must not fall to the communists at any cost.”
It could be all but a barren rock, same feelings and motivations would apply.
Nobody really cares that much about renegade provinces until they seem like a threat. The US famously called Taiwan the unsinkable aircraft carrier in the pacific[1]. It doesn't really matter that Taiwanese people themselves don't want to fight China.
If the Europeans and the US were serious about Taiwan's independence they would have built up Taiwan's defense industry and supported it's independence in the UN, when they were at the height of their power, but they specifically did not, they actually voted against any attempt of Taiwan to be admitted to the UN(to be fair the Republic of China in its constitution still considers itself the sole China). At the time Taiwan was an economic powerhouse and they had some of the biggest shipyards in the world.
Right now the US cannot at all compare with China in terms of military industrial output, here's what the US Navy secretary general had to say about the topic[2]. Basically AUKUS is subsidizing US shipbuilding.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unsinkable_aircraft_carrier
[2] https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/22/asia/us-navy-chief-china-...
Every few years they pull out their maps and we pull out our maps.
False. There might be some discussion around Ukraine and its historic role as an integral part of Russia's culture and history - and thus, where would an actual border between two peoples (including a cultural one) will be carved when shit gets fucked. But mixing up Poland or even GDR into this is nonsense narrative that does not exist.
Also, the historic reason behind PRC issues with Republic of China (Taiwan) is the fact that both state being the "One True China" as the core of their national myth. The practical issues are of course deterring a potential military threat. Everything else is just pointless rhetorics.
I don’t think the economists get this, but definitely people in the Chinese government are aware that taking Taiwan doesn’t really get them the tech.
Reminds me of when Biden was standing next to the German chancellor and said he'd make sure Nord Stream would be stopped if Russia ever invaded Ukraine and then when Russia invaded Ukraine and Nord Stream was blown up, everyone just ignored it.
Look at the incentives and consequences of blowing up TSMC if China uses the military. China would not have access to the high end chips; Taiwan loses a bargaining chip of its own, and would suffer a huge economic cost (a lot of electricity is used up by TSMC alone); and US is the one who gets to point at the big bad PRC throwing weapons at ROC, and know that PRC gets a road block on the semiconductor front.
In the end this is a matter between Ukraine and Germany and nobody cares what Russia thinks.
https://www.theregister.com/2022/01/05/taiwan_should_destory... ("US Army journal's top paper from 2021 says Taiwan should destroy TSMC if China invades")
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31012442 ("Taiwan should destroy TSMC if invaded, suggests US military paper (datacenterdynamics.com)"; 148 comments)
Here's extended context of what the OP is discussing, a different thing:
https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2023/05/12/... ("‘Selectively clipped’ video misrepresents US official’s TSMC comments")
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/05/12/microchip... ("Opinion: Blow up the microchips? What a Taiwan spat says about U.S. strategy")
edit: Moulton's quote is at 36:22 here—this is apparently its full and complete context:
https://vimeo.com/817736553 ("The United States and China: Navigating Strategic Competition"; Milken Institute, May 2, 2023)
From two guys who seem to have no real influence. It's basically little more than a blog post.
A lot of people say a lot of stuff. Sometimes that's pretty stupid. Sometimes even worse. That's kind of how it works in a free society.
The most effective lie is the one with a kernel of truth.
> “I’m not promoting the idea. I’m not promoting the idea,” Moulton said. “What I’m saying is these are some of the things that are actually actively being debated among US policymakers.”
The fun thing is this: if people like you keep denying this is a real thing until this becomes official policy, it would be too late for the people of Taiwan to object to it.
Another win for the US again! "The most effective lie is the one with a kernel of truth" indeed.
The US does a lot of stupid things, it doesn't make it unreal. This policy isn't even half stupid as long as you can deny it long enough to make it happen. I might even say it's smart to deny it on the surface but actually continuing to make the threat credible. Well done.
Claiming that the video is misleading is 100% disinformation.
Reminds me of Trudeau who talked about Russian disinformation after they gave a standing ovation to a literal SS soldier.
Anything I don't like is a Russian/Chinese fake news campaign and everyone I don't agree with is a Russian/Chinese bot. I can't believe that's what the culture in the west has become. It's really concerning.
We have 338 trained seals up in Parliament.
And they're still saying it's Russian propaganda...