Edit: To be clear, I'm talking about Gasoline ICE applications in the context of this article, which is far more narrow than all of combustion. Most ICE applications that are not ground transport are Diesel, which is not applicable to this. This is not applicable to jet fuel. Most small engines (lawn care) are rapidly being replaced with electric power as well.
From ecological perspective, mid-term, it makes sense to use renewable power source and captured carbon to synthesize fuel for airplanes to burn. That's properly carbon-neutral, with gasoline being effectively a high-density battery in liquid form.
Airlines optimize to such an extent that they include only the fuel needed to reach a destination, including a safety margin, so on short-haul flights the tanks are mostly empty at takeoff.
I think electric planes could be made to work fairly well for those short flights because the batteries could be kept small. But for long flights the deadweight is going to be a huge problem!
And on the other hand, planes on long flights are so heavy due to the additional fuel that they can not land early without getting rid of the excess weight first or risk structural damage or worse.This usually means dumping the fuel or burning it off in a holding pattern.
The edge cases matter. Combustion fuels are going to be with us for awhile, even after automobiles and heavy industry mostly migrate.
Applications of liquid fuels which are remote, in high fire-risk environments, don't lend themselves to other safety countermeasures during fueling, and don't lend themselves to electrification are tiny portions of the energy market, but still could be quite noticeable in absolute terms.
But that's not why I answered you. I answered in the way I did because you responded to a question "why do you think combustion fuels are a dead-end?". Even if we take the absolute best path for climate and get lucky on some aspects of battery and electrification economics, we're still going to be burning significant quantities of fuels for the next 100 years. They will be markets in significant decline, but still huge.
Diesel is not very flammable. You can drop a kit match into a puddle of diesel and it’ll extinguish the match.
The big difference is that unlike gasoline, diesel doesn’t really vaporize at standard conditions, and it’s the vapors that are so dangerous - the god old surface area effect, the same reason sawdust is much more dangerous than a solid hunk of wood.
The only actual problem is making a boatload of current batteries. Technology is good enough as it is. Of course it'll still improve over time.
Unless you have to travel long distances regularly, can't charge at home, or haul heavy things like a boat/camper/trailer/etc
[1] https://www.iea.org/reports/key-world-energy-statistics-2021...
1. Electric vehicles use 1/4 or less the energy of gasoline vehicles for the same result. If 75% of cars were EVs, your angle of cars would be "EVs only use 18%!". 2. Just because current state is mostly gas does not mean that we do not intend to change this. The current limitation is a propagation issue. EV cars for example are getting cheaper...but fewer people can own new cars anyways, it's going to take time. 3. Heating is a major use of energy and much of the world is behind on better solutions such as heat pumps.
Additionally, while I fully agree with your angle...in a city...much of the world does not actually work like that. You tell someone in Montana to stop using a car and they will ask for you to build a shrink ray. Saying' Stop using a car' is exactly the same as hitting like on FB for a social cause: It doesn't change reality of people needing to be at work, have food, or live life. The world isn't a happy imaginary place where 'Oh, just walk/take a bike/public transport!' works. It only works if it is better than the car. That is true in NYC and SF, that is not true between them.
1. As non-green electricity sources are replaced by green electricity sources, those non-green EVs become green EVs with no action required on the part of their owners. To switch someone using an ICE to a green car you have to get them to buy a new car.
2. If you have to use a burning fuel power source, you can try to capture some of the emissions where the fuel is burned to reduce the environmental impact.
If you are burning the fuel in your car, that emissions capture has to be done at the car where you are quite limited in feasible weight and volume of your emissions capture equipment.
If you are burning the fuel in a big power plant and then distributing the energy as electricity to EVs you don't have weight limits and have much less restrictive size limits on your emissions capture equipment.
Fossil-based hydrocarbon fuels could be replaced by non-fossil synfuel analogues which are themselves carbon neutral. This is based on proved chemistry, though the economics to date have not permitted anything but experimental and pilot-project scales of operation.
One of the appeals of this route to me, however, is that by introducing equivalent fuels to the extant energy system it would be possible to convert to a green, sustainable energy economy without wholesale replacement of extant fleets, powerplants, and energy infrastructure for refining, transport, storage, and distribution of those fuels. In this sense it's the exact analogue of replacing underlying grid generation and storage infrastructure with EVs.
Again, the slight fly in the soup is that neither economics nor the necessary scale of operations are proven, though the prospect isn't obviously unattainable, as many other proposed solutions are. (Say: biofuels, for which biological capacity simply isn't sufficient.)
With an EV the only harmful emissions are tires and brake pads.
Cleaning up the electrical grid is also a lot more attainable given current technology than scaling up synthetic hydrocarbon production. If a car has an estimated lifespan of say 20 years then I am more confident in achieving cleaner grid power than I am in clean synfuels in that lifetime.
There is also the matter of where you live. Some grids are already very clean and so the EVs that operate there really are low or even zero tailpipe emission.
I am curious how a synfuel ICE vehicle compares to an EV in terms of energy per distance. How much energy does it take to synthesize the fuel?
Of the secondary emissions of combustion, most of those can be controlled through ensuring the purity of the fuel mix, and if you're synthesizing the fuel in the first place, you can ensure that those components aren't present, notably sulfur and other contaminants.
That still leaves partially-combusted hydrocarbons (where fuel burn is too lean and/or cold), NOx emissions (where fuel burn is too hot, and the nitrogen comes from the atmosphere itself), carbon monoxide (partial combustion, again), and ozone. Those can all be mitigated to some extent through engine, combustion, and emissions controls, though there will always be some pollutants.
My understanding is that the round-trip efficiency of electricity-to-fuel synfuels based on seawater-sourced carbon is about 50-60% in the fuel synthesis, and about 25--30% for the utilisation (Carnot efficiencies are again a weak point), for a round-trip of as low as 12.5% to a high perhaps of 20%. That is admittedly not great, but what you do gain is an extremely energy-dense fuel that transports well and stores indefinitely. (Fossil fuels themselves are tens to hundreds of millions of years old.) Where those characteristics are desireable, there's simply nothing else which provides equivalent characteristics.
The fuels are also remarkably non-toxic (contra ammonia), non-corrosive (contra methanol), at heavier weights non-flammable (ironic in a fuel), certainly non-explosive (contra hydrogen). I have a feeling that they'll be with us for some time yet to come.
Is seawater sourced carbon actually carbon neutral? I always imagined the neutrality of synfuel relying on atmospheric carbon. I know the ocean absorbs some but is it enough to not be adding CO2 to the atmosphere? And if not then whats the energy efficiency of atmospheric carbon captured synfuels?
The advantage of sourcing CO2 from seawater as opposed to the atmosphere is that the energy cost of doing so is far lower. That's a key message (unsure if it's an original finding) of 2010s USNRL research by Willauer et al I'd looked at when it made news a ways back.
<https://web.archive.org/web/20230604174145/https://old.reddi...>
- "The Feasibility and Current Estimated Capital Costs of Producing Jet Fuel at Sea Using Carbon Dioxide and Hydrogen". Heather D. Willauer, Dennis R. Hardy, Frederick W. Williams. Navy Technology Center for Safety and Survivability, Chemistry Division. September 29, 2010. NRL/MRi6180--10-9300 <https://web.archive.org/web/20230604174145/http://www.dtic.m...>
- "Extraction of Carbon Dioxide from Seawater by an Electrochemical Acidification Cell Part I--Initial Feasibility Studies". Felice DiMascio, Heather D. Willauer, Dennis R. Hardy, M. Kathleen Lewis, Frederick W. Williams. Navy Technology Center for Safety and Survivability, Chemistry Division. July 23, 2010. NRL/MR/6180--10-9274 <https://web.archive.org/web/20230604174145/http://www.dtic.m...>
- "Extraction of Carbon Dioxide from Seawater by an Electrochemical Acidification Cell Part II--Laboratory Scaling Studies eather D. Willauer". Heather D. Willauer, Felice DiMascio, Dennis R. Hardy, M. Kathleen Lewis, Frederick W. Williams. Navy Technology Center for Safety and Survivability, Chemistry Division. April 11, 2011. NRL/MR/6180--11-9329 <https://web.archive.org/web/20230604174145/http://www.dtic.m...>
- "Extraction of Carbon Dioxide and Hydrogen from Seawater by an Electrochemical Acidification Cell Part III: Scaled-up Mobile Unit Studies (Calendar Year 2011)". Heather D. Willauer, Dennis R. Hardy, Frederick W. Williams, Felice DiMascio. May 30, 2012. NRL/MR/6300--12-9414 <https://web.archive.org/web/20230604174145/http://www.dtic.m...>
- "Extraction of Carbon Dioxide and Hydrogen from Seawater by an Electrochemical Acidification Cell Part IV: Electrode Compartments of Cell Modified and Tested in Scaled-Up Mobile Unit". Heather D. Willauer, Dennis R. Hardy, Frederick W. Williams, Felice DiMascio. September 3, 2013. NRL/MR/6300--13-9463 <https://web.archive.org/web/20230604174145/http://www.dtic.m...>
Other and earlier research: <https://web.archive.org/web/20230601122020/https://old.reddi...>
I really hope you're right, because the internal combustion engine directly causes a substantial portion of climate change. It is not so obvious to me that it's on the way out, because petroleum companies have a vested interest in it.
Diversifying or other future thinking, is far down the list. (As measured by investment allocations)
The reason fossil fuels are bad when it comes to climate change is that they are taking carbon that was sequestered long ago and putting it back into the atmosphere. Fossil fuels that are made from carbon recently removed from the atmosphere are just putting that carbon back, so cause no net change in CO2 levels.
They still have the same problem with putting things like sulfur dioxides, nitrogen oxides, and various other things into the atmosphere, so it would be best to someday move completely away from them, but that is massively less urgent than reducing CO2 emissions. They don't make those other things worse and could make reducing CO2 much less disruptive so would be a win if they ever get to the point where they can be produced economically in sufficient quantity.
Hydrogen or ammonia will likely be cheaper to make than hydrocarbons and might work for many uses, like airplanes and ships, that can't use batteries. Hydrocarbons may be only be used for places where can't upgrade.
Synthesized fuels aren't fossil fuels. If you want name, say hydrocarbon fuel.
Well that and tire particulate pollution.
And the bugs that get killed by windshields and grills.
And the people who get killed and maimed by collisions.
And the conversion of useful space to roads and parking lots.
And the disposal of the batteries so they don't catch fire.
And getting the raw materials for the batteries without messing things up more.
That's a fairly minor point relative to the emissions picture, which is most significant. But nonzero.
In re: better batteries, we have to ask, "Better for whom?" Tesla has already spun off another for-profit corporation to make money charging people to dispose of their batteries. More exploitive mineral extraction methods are typically cheaper than doing it right. Etc.
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metal%E2%80%93air_electrochemi...>
Combustion engines will be around for the next 100 years, even if human society mostly collapsed