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> The solution to reduce crime is also logical and clear, but politically unfeasible: extended incarceration.

The death penalty for misdemeanors would also reduce crime. The externalities make it not worth it.

Notably, Chicago tried exactly what you're proposing (rank order list of likely criminals with proactive surveillance and intervention). It didn't really work. [1]

[1] https://www.theverge.com/2016/8/19/12552384/chicago-heat-lis...

No they didn't, as stated in the article.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_Chicago

"Chicago has an estimated population of over 100,000 active gang members from nearly 60 factions. Gang warfare and retaliation is common in Chicago. Gangs were responsible for 61% of the homicides in Chicago in 2011."

Former Chicago Police Superintendent Garry McCarthy blames Chicago's gang culture for its high rates of homicide and other violent crime, stating "It's very frustrating to know that it's like 7% of the population causes 80% of the violent crime..."

Again, some data science mumbojumbo is preventing actual, logical solutions. El Salvador put gang members, in totality, in jail. Now it has the LOWEST homicide rate in Latin America - it had the HIGHEST before.

So yeah, the anti-carceration movement in the US has caused the deaths of more people, African-Americans in particular, than any terrorist organization.

While El Salvador's method has certainly been effective, I'm not sure it's something to discuss in the context of the average developed country. I don't know much about it, and while it was probably an improvement over the old system that resulted in so much homicide, it seems to me like the new system is a dictatorship with fascist tendencies.

They imprisoned ~2% of their adult population to get the gangs, effectively based purely on perceived membership.

It would be equivalent to increasing US prison population ~4x. [1]

It’s not really a serious argument in the American context

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/27/el-salvador-na...

Which is why citizens in the US will keep getting harmed and killed at a rate unheard of in developed countries.

Just today: https://nypost.com/2023/10/03/tennessee-businessman-fatally-...

Father of 3 kids, murdered by a career criminal.

Over 60(!) prior arrests, wide range of violent crime, never served more than 6 months.

You guys have no solutions, no alternatives. Nothing besides empty platitudes of "social justice" and "serious arguments".

Bill Clinton briefly course corrected, three strike laws and such ... and crime started plummeting. As if banning leaded gasoline was the reason, haha. But then, social justice reared its head and here we are.

Crime and murder is coming for even the most bleeding heart socialists: https://nypost.com/2023/10/03/disturbing-video-shows-moment-...

Watch what the consequence of this total idiocy of soft on crime does to society. Watch a fellow liberal getting stabbed to death.

As if this is normal in a civilized country.

FWIW, you’re entirely correct and I don’t expect things to get better.

Ryan Carson’s story is an especially tragic one. I don’t know how many more times this needs to happen before people accept that something’s gone deeply wrong.

The 100k stat that wiki page cites is from this [0] hilariously uhthorough document.

The "gang database" that I'm assuming that statistic is sourced from has been found to be completely riddled with errors.

"Those mistakes included two people listed as 132 years old and 13 people recorded as 118 years old." [1]

"Another said he double-checks information in the database by looking up police reports, because he’s aware that some people are identified as gang members based solely on where they live." [2]

[0] https://abcnews.go.com/Nightline/fullpage/chicago-gang-viole...

[1] https://chicago.suntimes.com/city-hall/2023/9/6/23861835/chi...

[2] https://www.propublica.org/article/politic-il-insider-chicag...

El Salvador, formerly the world's most homicidal country, tried what GP is proposing. It worked beyond people's wildest dreams: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/SLV/el-salvador/murder...

It seems like the murder/homicide rates have been on a very steady decline since 2015, but the aggressive arrest policies only came in last year.

Should everyone not be looking at happened in 2015?

Bukele took office in 2019, when the murder rate was well within the normal range of the past few decades. It's now far, far below that range (just noticed that the source I linked only goes to 2021, but murders went down by over half again in 2022: https://www.statista.com/statistics/696152/homicide-rate-in-..., and they are on trend to do the same this year)

> The solution to reduce crime is also logical and clear, but politically unfeasible: extended incarceration.

Some form of 3-strike law is on the books in a majority (28) of US states (including NY), so they clearly are not politically unfeasible, nor are they obviously effective.

Not enforced by DAs, especially post Covid and Bail reform.

Here, New York: https://nypost.com/2022/12/04/ny-should-revisit-three-strike...

Nobody was paying attention the last decade how the social movements destroyed safety.

Prop 57 in California, supported by billionaires? Resulted in the release of convicted sex offenders from prison. Turns out rape is a non-violent crime, who knew. Listen to women? Bah.

The Post article says:

> The law was later deemed, in part, to be unconstitutional by a federal court, which found that it violated the Sixth Amendment guarantee of a trial by jury.

Which appears to be incorrect:

https://www.prisonlegalnews.org/news/2011/mar/15/second-circ...

> The Second Circuit Court of Appeals found that New York’s Persistent Felony Offender Statute (PFOS), N.Y. Penal Law § 70.10 , which allows enhancement of sentences for prior felony convictions, violated the Sixth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution. However, that finding was later reversed by an en banc ruling.

Cash bail is a ridiculous concept, and it's good to get rid of it.

It’s frustrating to see people unfamiliar with the topic asserting things so confidently.

The 3-strike law has no effect enforced in NYC when low level crimes are deliberately not prosecuted. Bragg has made it clear this is the strategy going forward for his office, this is what we are expected to get used to.

Each shoplifter was arrested an average of 20 times? Why are they released? Why even waste resources arrested this, it's a free taxi at this point?

Bail reform. It seems as though criminals may be taking advantage of well-intentioned policies.

Petty crimes. They're stealing $3 sodas, not cars. Presumably, the bodega owner is calling the cops saying "Joey's back - please get him out of my shop"

No, but you're proving my point. Look at the stats behind the various closures of retail stores across the US to learn about the impact of "petty crime".

Here is an example of what small store owners have to endure: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YY1L62dKnU8 "El Sobrante store clerk set on fire during confrontation with shoplifter"

The absolute ignorance and distaste towards retail workers and small shop owners in the ruling class in the US is shocking.

Are you saying that it's common for store owners to be set on fire by shoplifters, or is your example inappropriate for being an outlier and not representative of what most shoplifting is like?

It's becoming more common now as store owners are left on their own and have to protect their livelihood with their bare hands.

Big box retail (no worries, all insured - remember that BS line?) is simply closing stores and killing jobs AND access to goods in one go. Cue the complaint about "food deserts". Walmart closed in Portland. WALMART which operates throughout hurricanes cannot handle the rampant violence and theft anymore.

But yeah, total ignorance from the bougie class toward the plight of blue collar Americans.

Here is a Sikh store owner beating the shit out of a robber, because vigilante justice is all that is left: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12381031/7-Eleven-o...

They’re not stealing $3 sodas, they’re stealing entire shelves of razors and shampoo and beer, stuffing them in garbage bags, and then selling them on 14th and A next to my apartment.

I see this Every. Single. Day.

It’s not bodega owners getting hit, it’s mostly franchised retail. CVS, Walgreens, Target seem to be the most common.

I asked an AP at Target why they don’t stop them, and he said it’s store policy that unless they’re lifting a felony amount, there’s just no business reason to stop them. They’ll be back the next day anyway.

People who don’t live here (or who live in nicer parts of the city) really don’t believe it, and it’s frustrating being gaslit about something you see almost every day.

Because otherwise you get headlines like "crime: stolen candy bar, sentence: 10 years in prison", and people vote in a DA that's soft on crime.

> Can you predict crimes? Of course you can, the math is clear.

I don't follow—just because arrests were made doesn't imply crime happened, and it doesn't imply the police are arresting the people committing the actual crimes. All it shows is that the cops arrest the same people over and over again. How do you know they aren't just harassing innocent people?

> The solution to reduce crime is also logical and clear, but politically unfeasible: extended incarceration.

Sorry, what solutions are you comparing to and what are you basing this on? Sounds like reactionary fear... miss me with that ish. Anyway if long sentencing worked we wouldn't have the crime rate we do.

Then again, asking a reactionary to use their brain is like asking a worm to fly. Apologies for the request.

> Anyway if long sentencing worked

El Salvador used to be the world's homicide capital. People lived in fear every single day. Then they locked up their criminals. Now their murder rate is comparable to US and Canada's.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/696152/homicide-rate-in-...

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/09/world/americas/el-salvado...

> Now, children play soccer late into the evening on fields that were gang turf. Ms. Inglés gathers soil for her plants next to an abandoned building that residents say was used for gang killings.

> Homicides plunged. Extortion payments imposed by gangs on businesses and residents, once an economy unto itself, also declined, analysts said.

> “You can walk freely,” Ms. Inglés said. “So much has changed.”

> El Faro, El Salvador’s leading news outlet, surveyed the country earlier this year and delivered a stunning assessment: The gangs largely “do not exist.”

Long sentencing works when you actually prosecute and enforce consistently (hint: US doesn't do that).

Ok so to state the obvious and it's insane to compare us to el salvador and seriously suggest we should become even more of a prison state than we already are.

Secondly, part of the reason we have such a high crime rate is our high imprisonment rate, as el salvador will discover. If you remove all legal avenues to survival you create crime.

Meanwhile, the actually obvious measures—i.e. actually fighting poverty in good faith—is so anathema to american culture people would rather watch people shit in the street than watch their housing valuation rise slower or, god forbid, drop.

Do you have any empirical evidence to support your assertions?

> watch their housing valuation rise slower or, god forbid, drop

I'm a YIMBY, the rent is too high. But YIMBYism only works if laws are enforced, otherwise you just get universal disorder.

I'm not sure what YIMBYism is beyond giving cash away to developers, tbh, nor what it has to do with laws being enforced. They seem like orthogonal concepts at first blush.

> Giving cash away to developers

By "YIMBYism" I just mean "making it legal for developers to develop"—no cash transfers necessary. When more housing gets built, housing prices go down (supply and demand), which helps alleviate problems like homelessness. However, one of the biggest reasons why policies that reduce housing costs face political opposition is that people fear that lower costs will attract criminals to the neighborhood. By arresting and imprisoning the criminals, you neutralize this source of opposition.

In short, locking up the bad guys is a necessary step to "fight poverty in good faith".

This ignores two things, first of which is "Empirical research on the relationship between length of incarceration and recidivism is limited and insufficient for developing federal sentencing policy" [1]. There is no guarantee that any sentence that would at all be reasonable for the crime would reduce the rate, and in fact that study I cited did not find any deterrent effect for sentences less than 5 years.

The second part I feel you miss are the as many as 14,000 other people arrested for shoplifting. If 6,000 is less than 1/3, than there were about 20,000 arrests. Your "Criminals commit crimes, a lot" seems to ignore all the other people. Extending incarceration wouldn't just affect the repeat offenders, but would also lock a massive number of poor people. You say class is just a distraction, but the very articles you cite bring up poverty as a factor.

Bringing up the decrease in robbery rate in Ireland is also a bit misleading, as they had a much lower number of robberies per 100,000 people (about half the rate)[2][3] to begin with, as compared to the US (the subject of this article). That means fewer people are responsible for a higher percentage of the crime.

[1]https://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/research-and-pu... [2] https://www.statista.com/statistics/191235/reported-robbery-... [3] https://www.statista.com/statistics/191235/reported-robbery-...