Democrats relied on one company to power its campaigns. Now its facing collapse
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It is difficult to say how important GOTV efforts are in deciding Presidential election outcomes today. But I am fully convinced of the impact down-ballot.
I know that it's never going to be as simple as somebody smacking their head and going, "Gosh, is it November already?" But I've knocked on a lot of doors on election day and practically every one of them was "Yep, already voted". Those that weren't were "Nope, not gonna." We weren't out there to change the minds of the latter group; that's what months of campaigning are for. In theory I could arrange transport for somebody who wanted to vote but had logistic issues, but I never once actually had to.
We were sent to houses that they knew were likely to vote for our side -- presumably this software, though I was much too far down the process to see that. Often, it was obvious from the yard signs. They'd done an impressive job: I never once knocked on a door and was told, "Nope, I'm voting for the other guy".
I did notice that the coordinators had a good understanding of the outcome, presumably due to internal polling. I knew the result in 2016 at a time when the opposite was still considered pretty much a done deal, on the day.
I certainly gave up on doing phone banking, where the median response was "please stop calling". I didn't do GOTV in 2020 with the pandemic. I don't know if I'll show up next year, but probably not.
Managing your donors and voters is your central competency. Outsourcing it is the height of folly.