The 51% tipping point is non-linear. I think a global tip will occur around 2028. Solid state batteries and NACS adoption will be the game changers.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_adoption_life_cycle
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_adoption_life_cycle
Almost solid state batteries will give extra range for high end cars but the bulk of the cars I suspect will be Sodium Ion.
I also expect Sodium Ion will be big in home storage and solar systems and potentially grid storage too. The reduced price per KWH at similar sizes and densities as Li-pho combined with being impossible to set on fire will make them popular in a range of big battery uses.
The last one is likely going to the the thorniest problem for many who need a car now, regardless of long-term operational costs. I expect EV tax credits to dwindle into nothingness, further expanding the price disparity.
I want to get an EV, but as a renter without overnight charging, I fear I would have to plan my life around how to keep my car charged. Currently, I know that I can fill the car at the spur of the moment at nearly every block in under five minutes.
Edit: added cold weather
The sticker price is dominated by the battery prices, which appear to be currently limited by resource supply rather by the energy requirements of turning rocks into batteries; the range follows from the battery price; cold weather issues that I'm aware of are also fixed by a bigger battery pack.
That leaves the fill-up time.
You would be right to say that reducing this to 5 minutes would need a technological leap, but I don't think it's truly necessary. First: it is easy to imagine a high-level government requirement that one-in-n street lights is retrofitted with a charging port for electric vehicles[0].
Second: PV cells are also getting cheaper, to the point that many EV makers are just slapping them on as afterthoughts. When this gets raised, the conversation diverges into two groups, those saying "that only gets you 8 miles per day, which is terrible" and those saying "that only gets you 8 miles per day, which is 80% of the average actual usage of a vehicle so this is good". In either case, trickle-charging even while you're driving will reduce both the degree to which you as a driver need the charging infrastructure and also the cost to the municipality of installing the kind of charging infrastructure I've described.
This doesn't reduce fill-up times, for which we would still need to think in terms of 30 minute breaks. This would definitely change the character of European petrol stations… though from what I remember of US gasoline stations on that one road trip I've been on from Davis CA to Salt Lake City, perhaps less so the American ones.
[0] or something along similar lines if my assumption that all residential areas have street lights is false
Charging rates keep getting faster and faster, but as someone with a Tesla for the last few years it has never once been a problem.
When you charge at home you wake up "full" every day and on road trips an extra 15m every few hours isn't a big deal. When I go to Buccees in Texas, by the time I use the restroom, get some water, and walk to/from my car is usually charged.
And the last thing I'll add on that point is that I've found the extra "fill up" time to be a healthy thing. Between autopilot/FSD and a 15m break every few hours, I arrived to my destination much more refreshed.
You are right about the cost thing, but I think competition from China will drive prices down a lot in the next few years. Trade regulations won't be enough when they start making EVs for half the price.
I understand your point of view, and would agree with it if OEMs were not constantly and consistently advancing the technology. Software updates alone have given considerable range increases. And solid state battery tech is very real, to the point of being a silver bullet for mass adoption if it arrives within the next 4 years.
Batteries are getting cheaper, denser, faster to charge and more durable every year. It's not a miracle improvement as sometimes is announced but the evolution is constant and CATL for example is already starting the mass production of 500Wh/Kg which would be impossible to imagine not long ago.