For example if you feel anxious/hopeless/overwhelmed, you might not perceive the theoretical eventual gratification as a potential outcome, or might avoid thinking much about a task at all. Seen through this lens, the subdivision trick is more of a way to manufacture a provisional motivation framework and engage with a task in a less emotionally threatening way. (With the hope that this framework can either carry you through the task or can be discarded after your negative emotions have been reduced)
I realize this doesn't directly contradict any points you made, but to me the procrastination equation doesn't feel like the most fruitful mental model of procrastination to start with.
Task avoidance (even at the cost of doing many other undesirable tasks) is a better model for many people.