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Comment by mikestew | Hacker News Reader

But they most likely won't, just like they didn't in the 80s. What will collapse will be home sales, but not prices (as so stated in TFA). Houses will just sit on the market for months. I see that happening now in the Seattle suburb of Redmond. I go for a lengthy run six days a week, so I see the real estate signs. And I see the same signs (in some cases) going on months now. Whereas not that long ago I'd see a sign, and in a couple of weekends it would be gone.

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WA licensed realtor here, working outside the I-5 corridor... what you say is an accurate reflection of what I see in my rural market - sales are slower, but prices aren't dropping. When I talk to my colleagues who are in the Puget Sound market, they all indicate that inventory is almost tighter than it was previously - people are in a 3% rate and unwilling to move unless life forces them to do so.

I'm not an economist, but I see it as a basic function of supply and demand. So long as demand is high and supply is stable, prices must remain high. Sales may be slower (IE: you see properties sitting on market longer...) but that is a reflection of constrained borrowing / access to capital, not decreased demand.

This seems like a strange way to decide homes aren't being sold. Couldn't this just as easily be an indicator of people buying with loans rather than cash? In the former case, it can take a long time to close the transaction (on the order of months -- especially if there's any back and forth on fixups or appraisals), and realtors aren't allowed to make it a 'SOLD' sign until that happens.

This seems like a strange way to decide homes aren't being sold.

This comment is so HN. If you were expecting me to publish a full report with links to MLS data, you'll be sorely disappointed. It's just one dude running around the neighborhoods in his fancy underwear, making a mental note of the short little "home for sale->this way" signs at the corners over the course of a year. All I can tell you is, a year ago those signs disappeared in a few weeks. Now they take over a month or more to disappear. Full analysis will not be forthcoming.

Make of it what you will, or make nothing of it at all and enjoy the rest of your day.

Why....why were you running in your underwear?

One can spend US$100 on some fancy Nike running shorts, but they're still just one step away from boxer underwear. And that shirt with the name of the last race you ran? Yeah, fancy t-shirt, i. e., underwear.

IOW, I was being facetious. And a little self-denigrating, to make sure I don't take myself too seriously as an athlete.

> And that shirt with the name of the last race you ran? Yeah, fancy t-shirt, i. e., underwear.

looks at Spartan race t-shirt from 2014 I use as my gym shirt

No need to call me out like that!

> "home for sale->this way"

I see, that makes a bit more sense. I thought you were talking about the big signs on posts that are placed on the lots for sale, but if you were talking about those open house markers then it might be a better indicator of difficult sales.

> This comment is so HN.

I'm new to HN, so I don't know what you mean by this. Can you elaborate? I wasn't expecting you to post some kind of research, rather I was looking to figure out what I misunderstood, and it seems like that part was a success?

...so HN

Oh, it's just that folks here can expect a lot when one posts an anecdote. Like how I didn't think all the way through the implications of what I saw, and did I consider...? "Dude, it's just a story."

Not intended as an insult, and not quite a compliment, either. But it is one of the things I appreciate about HN most of the time. Take your typical "studies have shown..." post. I appreciate that folks with more experience in statistics and how studies work will post that "it might not be that bad, considering variable Y...", or "with that sample size?".

It was just an off-hand comment, perhaps too much of an inside joke.

Possibly, but it still be an indication of a change. My understanding is a lot of markets at a high amount of cash offers. Cash offers were more attractive since they didn’t tie the deal to financing the switch to financing based sales with indicate that deals are less competitive intern, that would likely indicate that less people are buying.

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