> What should be mentioned is that Social Security could easily be well in the black with even higher payments to retirees by simply raising the income limit on the social security tax.

Obviously. It could also be in the black if you raised the rate 2x...

> I especially don't like ignoring it like this because it implies the US government simply needs to ignore that obligation to the public, let millions retire with no safety net, and just default on trillions of debt.

The US government might technically default - i.e. miss payments - but the payments will likely be delayed (due to political BS) rather than not paid in full w/ accrued interest.

They've missed payments before. They'll probably miss them again. But they can literally print money. There's zero reason to truly default - and ENORMOUS consequences if they do.

AFAIK, The Treasury at least claimed to be able to pay SS benefits in full even if the US "defaulted" (delayed) Treasury payments.

It's hard for me to imagine a world in which the government just doesn't pay SS Treasuries. With enough political will, anything is possible. But even if political winds change dramatically - there's no way around how enormous the financial consequences would be to everyone in the country.

I guess you can never underestimate how much politicians are willing to destroy this country to get a very small soundbite on TV - but I'm skeptical this is worth worrying about.

Is it possible COLA for SS will be nerfed? That seems within the realm of possibility.

Is it possible the Federal Government just decides to stop paying Treasuries SPECIFICALLY to SS? Super-dooper highly unlikely.