How is the EV of 1% of change at $1B and 100% chance at $1M the same? The EV is respectively $10M and $1M. I actually think, that if it was the same, they would have different approach towards being a VC.
1B is 10^9. 1M is 10^6. So we need a factor that takes away 3 decimal points. A percent is already taking away 2 decimal points. We need one more. So .1% of 1B is 1M because 9-3=6. I was correct.
I think I see your error: you read .1% as 1%. I applaud you checking the math, even if this time you were wrong.