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openAI self-selects only people who drink the AGI koolaide. Its the only way to get a job/keep a job there.

Or the brightest minds in AI genuinely think AGI is near…

Brightest minds in the world advocated for eugenics, against plate tectonics, or nuking entire nations.

They might think of lots of stupid things with nothing to back it up other than their feelings.

Is there any evidence that the "brightest minds" are able to to accurately predict the future?