What US census data tells about the competitive landscape for startups?

US Census once every year publishes Business Dynamics Statistics (BDS) with 2 year lag. BDS records number of firm births and exits over given year in all sectors and administrative units. The data is published with a 2 year lag, so the most recent data is for year 2021.

I assumed that death rates of firms stays the same as recorded in the birth year of a firm, calculated average lifetime of a firm and probability of surviving after N years and here is what I found:

- Average lifetime for a firm founded in 2016 is 7.6 years - Average lifetime for a firm founded in 2021 is 6.7 years - COVID pandemic shortened average lifetime of firm by almost 1 year - There were 447122 firms founded in 2016; - There were 478873 firms founded in 2021; - Only half of them are expected to survive 3 years, only hundred thousand of them will last more than 10 years; - New York and California are in Top 5 states with lowest average expected firm lifetime - 4.7 and 5.5 years respectively - South Dakota and Nebraska are the two best states to launch a startup, with average expected firm lifetime of 10.2 and 9.9 years respectively - If you launch in South Dakota, your start-up will live on average twice longer than if you launched in New York - The implication of this data is that competition usually outweighs positive network effects when choosing a place to start a business - Average startups has 49% chance of surviving after 3 years and 20% of surviving after 10 years; - IT has below average chance of startup surviving after 3 years 45%; - Arts and entertainment is the most competitive industry with 36% chance of lasting longer than 3 years; - Utilities is the easiest business to launch with 72% likelihood of become successful, but good luck getting starting capital to launch there; - Health Care, Agriculture and Finance are good industries to operate at; - It is a little harder to survive for startups in Transportation and Mining

Check my website for some additional infographics:

What US census data tells about the competitive landscape for startups? - https://www.iwantthisstartup.com/article/2023101502462845074...

What industry is the most favourable for a startup? - https://www.iwantthisstartup.com/article/2023101502571075159...

In what state it is the easiest to launch a successful business? - https://www.iwantthisstartup.com/article/2023101502544371138...