On one hand, this article really gets it: 'above the line spending vs below the line spending; objective cost-of-sale vs speculative cost of branding.' From an investors' perspective, this will give you the picture. I agree with the conclusions. I think that online advertising largely because of google/adwords/google analytics, their competitors & the complex of supporting technologies & services, mean that the base chunk of online ad spending is much more robust then the average.
But on the other hand, the article seems to be written in the context & jargon of the advertising world that doesn't get it "awareness, consideration, preference and loyalty" is part of the consumer behaviour concepts behind traditional advertising selling 'ordinary products for ordinary people'- washing powder, toilet paper & cars. It's really squeezed in here. Then they mention hulu. That's dumb (IMO). Hulu is part of analog tv advertising. It replicates the analogue environment enough to be able to take their customers with them. I have no beef with this, but there is nothing the about.com, facebook or even (i think) youtube can really learn from them.
The second thing is that the undertone seems to assume that big traditional advertisers are the driving force behind everything. They were in tv-land where there is only room for a few dozen advertisers that needed to reach everyone & above all wanted to become 'your brand.' That has nothing to do with online advertising. The revolution is that advertising is now in chunks of whatever size you want. You can advertise a local auto repair shop on a $1000 a year budget with approximately the same ROI as a as a big name nationwide chain. That's the revolution. I'm sure coca-colas & Fords will eventually take a big piece of this, their big companies. But it's not their pie.