Deliveries up, reviews of the product are fantastic, production problems being resolved.
Repair reports of 14k+ quotes, over engineering that adds weight for no benefit, burning through cash, production issues.
They are doing both!
Their production ramp is fantastic and they have three products that their customers love!
But they also have significant engineering and production problems that are causing them to be too costly. That, combined with the reality of being a low volume maker in a business that demands high volumes for positive cash flow, means that they are burning money quickly too.
This all reconciled around 2026 when R2 comes to market. It is make or break for the company.
I have been seeing an awful lot of them on the streets in the Bay Area. It seems like there has been a real increase just within the past few months. I have considered buying one for myself, but decided to wait until their first model update when hopefully most of their remaining quality and reliability issues will be fixed.
I don’t own one, but the SUVs look really nice. For some reason I don’t like the truck design even though it’s very similar to SUV.
Which is good! Urbanism is dope. I'm a big urbanist. I also just deal with finding a spot because I like my pickup.
Chicago straight up banned parking pickups overnight on the street until pretty recently so you just never see them for personal use.
"Commercial pick-up trucks, junk vehicles, and any pick-up truck weighing more than 8,000 pounds are still prohibited from parking on ANY residential and business streets."
Quite a way from all pickups.
I don't know if the numbers support that, but I think the R1 is definitely a steal even at the current prices for the amazing package you get. The problem for Rivian is that most people don't actually want all that value i.e. track racing ability and off roading ability at the same time. So the flagship vehicle builds their brand but a lower priced compromise vehicle would be needed to make money.
TFL has a great take on this: "Most people will never offroad beyond what a Z71 can do. You do not need a Rubicon, you are not that good at offroading" Matches my experience.
They have to continue improving cost efficiency, increase production, and design and produce a cheaper "2" model line, and they seem to be succeeding in all of those things. The R2 line will be announced in a year or so with details.
They don't have a demand problem and they don't need to worry about what "most people" want because more people want what they have right now than they can actually produce cars for. What they have right now is of course a premium car aimed at the most lucrative segment of the market and people are lining up to get one. Their core problem is building more cars and do it cheaper.
Scaling production will eventually get them to the point where they become profitable. This requires reducing cost and working on manufacturing processes. That's a capital intensive business and the risk is that capital runs out before the company becomes profitable. That's why the stock is down. Several other EV startups have similar issues. And actually several legacy car manufacturers aren't doing much better but simply have more capital. Quite a few EVs in the market are being sold below cost price right now.
Once Rivian nails profitability is when they can start worrying about mass market appeal. They are clearly starting to think about that.
Tesla did the same thing until they went mass market with the model 3 and y. And even those had a waiting list. The model 3 ramp up nearly killed the company. But once they fixed that it became a revenue machine. Before that they did the model s in much smaller numbers and the roadster in even smaller numbers. They did not become profitable until just a few years ago. Now they are printing money of course and making millions of vehicles. And they are running circles around their competition in terms of cost.
Rivian looks like it might be on track to replicate that success but they have some way to go.