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Comment by onion2k | Hacker News Reader

If you look at a graph of interest rates that goes back more than 50 years you'll see that the recent period of very low rates is an abhoration. It was weird. It hasn't happened before. 8% is a return to normal (still a little low if anything). Refusing to sell because you believe rates will drop is just making your life more difficult because it almost certainly won't happen.

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There's a much bigger aberration in a graph out there though. The M2 money supply. During covid it expanded at an unprecedented rate. It's currently declining. The latter hasn't happened since the Fed started publishing records of it.

Worse still, the last historical precedent for such a decline I could find is the 1929 depression.

> because it almost certainly won't happen.

A return to zirp in the short-term most likely won't happen.

But the world simply cannot afford higher rates. The Fed is pausing, in will likely cut next year.

    The Fed is pausing

They are likely to raise rates (25bps) at the next meeting. Economic indicators continue to be very strong, and inflation has not meaningfully reduced.

If you look at a graph of interest rates there is a centuries long trend of declining interest rates. The current interest rate hike is the "abhoration".

Yeah but prices are still at very low interest rate levels and not at 8% interest rate level

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