Recession Is About to Hit the US Economy: 3 Warnings Signs to Watch
businessinsider.com
businessinsider.com
Meanwhile:
From BofA:
Overall, the data flow since our last weekly pushed up our 3Q US GDP tracking estimate from 3.8% to 4.3% q/q saar. [Oct 20th estimate]
We left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +4.0% (qoq ar). [Oct 19th estimate]
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 5.4 percent on October 18, unchanged from October 17 after rounding. [Oct 18th estimate]
BUT https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicator... is forecasting at least a mild recession.
Stuff like this is where the worries about recessions are coming from:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-21/high-car-...
Combine that with looking around at the commercial real estate situation.
Then there's the pretty historical tightening cycle the Fed just went through. Recessions usually hit 6-12 months after the Fed stops tightening, because it takes time for loans to roll over into the new interest rate regime and for the costs to really bite.
And look around at all the companies that have been surviving off of cheap debt from ZIRP running at zero or negative return on capital / operational earnings while trying to grow at all costs who are now "right-sizing" and laying people off.