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Comment by ethbr1 | Hacker News Reader

HN (and futurists in general) tend to significantly underweight inertia.

People hate change, and absent a catalyzing event or order of magnitude advantage, it will take a decade for usage patterns to shift.

E.g. Kagi over Google

Kagi could hypothetically be 25% superior in all searches.

Most people don't know and don't care. Search is the thing that pops up and they type into. You can even change that? To what? There are others?

Firefox had tabs.

Chrome had faster javascript. (Although moreso substantial free marketing on highly-visited webpages)

That's the sort of thing it actually takes to shift users.

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> E.g. Kagi over Google > Kagi could hypothetically be 25% superior in all searches.

The difference is the business model. Except for a small minority of people in tech and with disposable incomes, the majority aren't willing to pay for Search.

So if Kagi wants to increase their adoption they would need another business model. Advertising (in one form or another) is the easiest one.

I’m not sure the problem is the business model. Bing has the same business model as Google and has been trying hard to get some traction, even integrating ChatGPT, to no avail.

Google is a verb, it’s the default, it’s the internet. Two whole generations grew up with it being their portal to information.

There’s nothing Kagi can do to dethrone Google, unfortunately. Its only hope is to carve a niche for itself and cultivate it.

They could build a phone operating system and hardware ecosystem, make themselves the default on that, and then pay their competitors billions to also choose them as the default? /s

> Google is a verb, it’s the default

Hence, the lawsuit ;)

> Most people don't know and don't care. Search is the thing that pops up and they type into. You can even change that? To what? There are others?

So we’re all still using Yahoo and Altavista?

I think that's their entire point - it took many years for Altavista and Yahoo to die, and Yahoo isn't even dead yet in some markets (see: Japan).

Google eclipsed their capabilities >25 years ago and yet some of them are still kicking around. Inertia is a very strong thing.

Yahoo! Japan isn't related to anything outside of Japan: the brand was bought by SoftBank a while ago. Also, I've never heard of anyone actually using it for search, though maybe older people still do (the same people who use fax machines at home...). Everyone I've met uses Google.

No the internet population at time of Yahoo was X (say 400 million desktop PCs) about year 2000. Then google started to gain ground and from 2000-2010 internet population went from 400M to 4Bn - and even if every yahoo user from 2000 stuck with yahoo they were just 10% of users - and those users defaulted to google (partly actual defaults, partly fashion, partly here is how you do a search")

> Most people don't know and don't care.

Yet. Time is the enemy of ad-supported business models.

> Time is the enemy of

Time is literally the enemy of everything. The universe will experience heat death. The sun burns out. Nations will fall. You’ll die of old age.

The assertion you made is actually the most milquetoast safest prediction that anyone can make about the ad business and it’s obvious to everyone.

The thing that actually matters is “when?”

"Man drinks like that, and doesn't eat, he is going to die."

"When?"

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