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Comment by blindriver | Hacker News Reader

SBF is going to be pardoned by the Dems. Guaranteed. He donated far too much money for him not to be pardoned. Not just to reward SBF, but to signal to anyone else that the Dems have their back if they donate enough. The same goes for the Republicans as well. Trump pardoned Levandowski as one of his final acts as president.

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I’ll bet you $1,000 USD he does not get pardoned by Biden.

Let me clarify, he won't pardon SBF before the 2024 elections, but afterwards he will, either in 2025 or 2029 on the last day of his term. And if Biden dies, then his VP will pardon SBF.

I would definitely take the $1000 bet, but I don't make bets with strangers who probably won't pay up.

You might find a prediction market you can bet in.

If SBF is pardoned by Joe Biden, or any other Democratic president, I will make a $2,000 donation to the charity of your choice.

It's not going to happen. 0% chance.

Agreed.

You have a tell :-)

That seems extremely unlikely.

Can you provide precedent?

Here are 140:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Clinton_pardon_controve...

Marc Rich appears to have been comparable in severity of fraud but avoided conviction let alone all the other attention grabbing things Sam has done. Not to mention all the Israel connections.

If Sam has a pardon coming then he’s done as much as he possibly can to make it damaging to the pardoner. Can’t see it happening. Parents, maybe. They haven’t played this like asshats.

The world doesn’t work this way. Not because it’s just or that there’s no corruption: it’s because there’s little benefit to Joe Biden. This is a high profile case. It’ll only trigger more scrutiny into everything. And Sam is an isolated, broke man with no friends. Why would anyone help him for money he’s already given?

You’re way off base.

The campaign finance trial is next March I believe. Could also trigger more scrutiny into everything if Sam pleads not guilty. I think guy’s stuck in prison, but who knows. A guilty plea from Sam might be preferable.

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