I'd be absolutely shocked if he got 4 years. It'll likely be much higher. I'd be pretty surprised by anything less than 10 years, but wouldn't be too surprised by sentences north of 25.

The federal sentencing guidelines are... very rough for the amount of money at issue. I'm pretty sure a significant downward departure from the guidelines would be required for the judge to get under 20 years.

Wrong. Considering Liz Holmes got 11 years for a much smaller scale fraud, SBF will get at least 30. And since this is a federal crime, he has to serve 85% of the sentence.