> "shrink-wrapped" software, which largely doesn't exist anymore

Except every commercial operating system, any enterprise network or security appliance (physical or virtual), software for hardware (firmware, drivers), or pretty much any other software that isn't implicitly on or connected to the internet.

A few companies who might find this tax paradigm beneficial come to mind: Microsoft, Apple, IBM, Cisco, Intel, NVIDIA... Just to name a few.

I generally agree with the overall sentiment; except the ways in which software is being built and delivered is changing by expansion, but not necessarily changing by replacement.