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This is just an intuition on my part. AI will make steady progress, but AGI will not be realized til we better understand consciousness. There will be progress in domain specific AI, but general intelligent autonomous action requires that the lights be on, that is, consciousness.

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Huh, I think the exact opposite. We don't understand consciousness, so I expect it to be something accidental that ends up creating it. A misconfiguration possibly, or just a couple of tools being hooked up in a novel way. We probably won't know it's conscious for the first couple years.

Kinda weird to create consciousness when you don't understand what it is, but neither did the universe and we still ended up conscious.

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