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> It's pretty unlikely this film will make $30 million

It would easily have made $30 million worldwide. Almost certainly domestic. You could question whether it would have made its budget back (70 million) on domestic, but for a family film with existing IP there aren’t really any blockers to clearing 30 million.

> The effects work is nowhere near done etc.

The film is finished, some critics had already seen it.

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Are you saying that it would have sold $30 million in tickets, or that WB would have gotten $30 million from the theaters after the theaters get their cut?

Theaters mostly don’t get a cut on these films. WB gets all the box office and the theater makes money on concessions.

> Theaters mostly don’t get a cut on these films. WB gets all the box office and the theater makes money on concessions.

That's absolutely not true, especially internationally.

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