The fact that exercise causes weight loss has been borne out by numerous controlled experiments. Something I found via a quick search: https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.duke.car...
Also, Taubes' insulin nonsense has been debunked. Lets move on.
http://wholehealthsource.blogspot.com/2011/08/carbohydrate-h...
As for your hypothetical environmental cause, it must be extremely selective. For example, consider mixed income American neighborhoods (e.g., Harlem, Jersey City). This alleged environmental cause seems to primarily affect the lower income people. How does that happen? Are the yuppies with gym memberships and hipsters with their organic vegan raw paleo diets somehow immune?