Do people still trust this organization to build super 'AGI'?
Just focus on the enterprise chat bot business
Just focus on the enterprise chat bot business
Heck, we're split on whether current GPT is a glorified autocomplete, a friend, or an alien intelligence, or a half-dozen other theories. It's a black box.
Most people can't handle uncertainty, so they're in some camp, and all the camps are crazy and stupid.
Ditto for covid, for that matter. In early 2020, it could have been anything from a glorified flu to a civilization-ending plague. Ditto for global warming, for that matter. All the models are speculation and extrapolation from limited data. Ditto for a half-dozen other things.
Personally, I think we should play it safe for all of those, but reasonable people can differ. What reasonable people can't do is argue for certainty before we have data coming in or a reasonable understanding of the underlying threat.
Edit: If people could handle uncertainty (and understand value differences are okay), we'd also have a lot less political polarization. A lot of this is simply about believing the other side _might_ be right. If I believe something with 10% odds, and you with 90%, it's often possible to compromise, where with a categorical split, it's not.
that's the best sell to the investors who are rushing with billions because afraid to miss the opportunity of millennia.
That’s clearly what they’re doing. The AGI thing is just fancy marketing.
Not that they couldn’t be lying, but I’m not sure Occam’s razor would suggest that given their long history of public statements on the topic.
I’ve always felt fundamentally that if you don’t understand how human thought works to such a degree that you can distill it down into an algorithm, you certainly can’t make a computer do it. Which I know is pretty obvious, but apparently a lot of people haven’t gotten the memo. What ChatGPT can do is really cool, and incredibly useful, but it’s nowhere near a model of the human thought process.
1. It takes longer than you think
2. It is much more iterative than you think
We're not going to all wake up one day and see a robot simulating human thought. We'll just inch closer and closer until we're there, and we won't even realize we got there until we've been there for 5 years.
AGI is not an iPhone launch. It's more like the evolution of humans, which took place over millions of years, without anyone being able to identify the first "real" human.
People were saying things like trucking was a dead profession within a handful of years, etc.
They were wrong as hell, clearly.
Point being: Moore's law is for transistors, not just any tech, and not everything in tech gets on an exponential growth/improvement path.
And commercially available, but only in "easy" places with mild climate and easy roads. When I see them effortlessly driving around here in 4" of fresh snow with no visible lane markings and cars sliding all over the place, I'll be impressed.
I just got back from Scottsdale, AZ and saw a few Waymo taxis around (crossed the street in front of one), but, like... that's easy... wide, even surfaced roads, no real weather. Barely a pedestrian or cyclist in sight.
And, finally, none of this looks anywhere like the predictions from 5, 6, 7 years ago. We're almost a decade on from when I first started hearing people saying things like "no point in becoming a truck driver, that's a dead career now that trucks will be automated" and, yeah... that was wrong as hell.
This community has a strong tendency for cult following and tunnel vision. Seems like contrarian thinking, the hacker mindset, and as of recently entrepreneurship are not particularly popular anymore. Instead we have people demanding ip theft and the destruction of entire industries just to satisfy a cult leader’s vision. A little disappointing particularly since it damages and otherwise interesting technology such as ai, and it pushes the hundreds of legitimate ml startups away.
Did any of them mention how to build it?