Why Apple might be the next RIM

If this was "Will Apple be the next RIM?" you could just answer no and move on.

The rule is that headlines phrased as questions are answered with no.

We now need a similar rule for "Why <event that won't happen> might happen" headlines.

Ludicrous. Apple is spread out over many more computer markets than RIM ever was.

Alternately: “Why vuru is probably trolling for page-views with baseless speculation”

Steve Jobs was a key figure in the history of our industry but it's not like he built the iPhone personally and the entire team didn't depart with him. In contrast, RIM has had bad management for many years and no track-record of successfully building a consumer product - Apple could get there but it's not going to happen quickly or with any plausible single mistake.

With that title and given the first few HN comments, I did not bother reading it. However, I do have an opinion to share: IMO, a better subject would have been "Apple might be the next Sony, or not"

Comparing Apple with Sony makes way more sense to me than comparing it with RIM. Both are in e consumer market, the iPod is the next Walkman, and with some squinting, the iPod Touch is the next Playstation.

I unsubscribed from the mailing list after this article. No compelling evidence (other than "Tim Cook is not a product guy"). Giving a time horizon or recent evidence on statements such as "Apple is a great company but realistically, can they continue like this ad infinitum? History says no." seems required to be taken seriously.

That line makes as much sense as "Why Google might be the next Yahoo"

RIM's current market cap: 7B

RIM's highest ever market cap (6/20/08 @ $145/share): 76B

Apple's current market cap: 580B

The comparison isn't even close, and that's just the financials. Take a look at the market segments each company covers, and you find a similar disparity in comparison.

Yes, Steve Jobs was a huge part of the vision of Apple. But he wasn't everything. Apple is successful because of how the company is run, and coincidentally, Tim Cook is a huge part of that. If you remember, 12 years ago Apple was a struggling company selling computers to designers, illustrators and some educational institutions. Since then, Apple has transformed itself to be the dominant high-end personal computer maker, the dominant high-end smartphone maker, and the dominant tablet maker in consumer electronics. They managed to grow and flourish a retail business model in a decade that saw the demise of retail as more companies shifted to online distribution channels (an effort led, coincidentally, by Tim Cook). They have more cash on hand than the U.S. government.

If anything, a better comparison would be Apple 1999 : RIM 2012. Except that RIM doesn't have a Steve Jobs-type product visionary to bring it back from the brink of death.