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Comment by gibolt | Hacker News Reader

It could drastically change so many aspects. The cost of transport could drop 10x or more (accounting for efficiency gains and longevity of EVs).

- Car ownership could end up eliminated except for those who really need dedicated work vehicles. - Goods and delivery costs plummet. - Cross-state/country trips eliminate short/medium haul flights (wake up at your destination). - People get thousands of hours back from commuting (in theory).

So many other knock-on effects similar to how smart phones changed every aspect of our lives.

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Why "could" the cost of transport drop 10x? Transport costs, have on average, been trending upwards.

Because labor is expensive and has many practical limitations that cause high transportation costs. A self driving vehicle could do almost 3x the work of a human simply due to the fact that computers can work continuously without rest.

Also, highways with human drivers are highly wasteful of material and space. A smoothly flowing highway requires 80%+ of the space to be empty in order to account for the high latency in human decision making. This is expensive.

Cruise can't do 1x the work of a human. I don't think using imagination-tech statistics makes for a credible argument.

What else do you think research and development investment is?

This thread, and this entire topic, is a discussion about things that currently don't exist and aren't currently possible. We are all aware that self driving vehicles are future technology, not an existing one.

Research and development doesn't include arbitrary statistics. Let's not confuse irresponsible marketing with innovation.

I think you are confusing investment with innovation. The investment, and the marketing to raise those funds comes before any innovation might happen. The "big bet" that the title is referring to is the future innovation that everyone knows doesn't exist yet. The upside potential for innovation is the entire point of investing in R&D.

If you think that this upside potential is not very well defined, entirely hypothetical, and isn't even clear that it will even happen, you're entirely right. Investors call this "risk".

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