The trajectory is 2.5C or even more.
People will resist draconian measures because most won't be alive to witness the worst of it anyway. Behavioral changes as well as tax/cost increases will not get us where we want to be with any speed.
Our only hope is technology and exponential progress. Many models assume a linear progress in their calculations, but sometimes a fly-wheel occurs where all of a sudden, everything happens all at once.
In my town (population: 10K), 10 years ago nobody had solar. 5 years ago, 5% had it. Now you won't see a roof without it. It's contagious. We need to make this go viral in a way that does not belittle or stress people, it should be seen as beneficial to the individual.