Turkey's central bank hikes interest rate by 500 basis points to 40% | Hacker News Reader

Turkey's central bank hikes interest rate by 500 basis points to 40%

cnbc.com

30 pointsmfiguiere24 comments

The number one concern for US voters is our level of inflation.

Pro tip: Don't let a populist gain control over your central bank. They are supposed to be independent. Once it was clear Erdogan had consolidated power sufficiently to dictate central bank policy... Two noteworthy things occurred:

1. Traders across the globe realized that Turkey was truly in a mess and began dumping Lira

2. Things went from bad to worse for the average Turk

Haven't followed things much since. I am also unsure if Erdogan has realized since that a central bank is more than an annoying thing for him to squeeze when his political agenda goes one way or another. Not sure if this sort of things is historically recoverable. Perhaps others can take it from here.

US is lucky, because USD is the world reserve currency. Every exporter in the world wants to swap nominal USD with oil, chips, materials, grain. No one wants to swap real assets with Turkey Lira, Zimbabweian dollars.

I wouldn’t call that luck. It is backed by a ton of hard work and huge quantities of systemic violence.

As has been said. 100% not luck.

Being reserve currency has benefits but that's not relevant re the situation in Turkey. Countless countries have healthy inflation rates and only one is the reserve currency.

> Pro tip: Don't let a populist gain control over your central bank.

USA was founded without a central bank and is on it's third central bank. The banksters learned a lot over the years, so this private central bank may hold on for another decade or so - until some States get fed up and divorce the USA.

Arguably the confirmation of 3 youthful originalist textualist Supreme Court justices makes likely that we will see substantial tact toward more state independence and restraint of the federal government broadly. While folks holler about this or that and things are heated... Notice these huge cases trickling in:

Here's the updated list of recent Supreme Court cases that asserted states' rights and/or advanced government restraint:

1. *Biden v. Nebraska (2023)*: Limited the Secretary of Education's authority under the HEROES Act, constraining the federal executive's interpretive power over statutory mandates.

2. *303 Creative LLC v. Elenis (2023)*: Upheld the First Amendment rights against state compulsion, supporting individual rights against state actions.

3. *Sackett v. Environmental Protection Agency (2023)*: Restricted the EPA's ability to regulate wetlands, effectively limiting federal environmental regulatory power and implying greater autonomy for states.

4. *Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization (2022)*: Overturned Roe v. Wade, ending the federal constitutional right to an abortion and allowing states to regulate or ban abortion rights.

Seccesion seems less likely to me. The Supreme Court sets the rules. The states should have less to be angry about in the coming years.

Re central banking:

The history of central banking in the United States before the establishment of the current Federal Reserve System in 1913 involves two previous central banks: the First Bank of the United States (1791-1811) and the Second Bank of the United States (1816-1836). Analyzing the differences between these institutions and the reasons for the longevity of the Federal Reserve can provide insights into the evolution of central banking in the U.S.

### First Bank of the United States (1791-1811) - *Establishment and Objective*: Proposed by Alexander Hamilton, it was established to handle the war debt and create a standard form of currency. - *Structure and Governance*: It was a private corporation with public duties, holding a twenty-year charter. - *Controversy and Opposition*: It faced significant opposition from those who feared centralized financial power, particularly from Thomas Jefferson and James Madison. - *Role in Economy*: The bank was instrumental in standardizing U.S. currency and stabilizing the economy but was less involved in regulating other banks.

### Second Bank of the United States (1816-1836) - *Establishment and Objective*: Created in response to the financial chaos of the War of 1812, it aimed to stabilize the currency and control state banks. - *Structure and Governance*: Similar to the First Bank, but with more capital and stricter regulatory authority over state banks. - *Controversy and Opposition*: Faced intense opposition from Andrew Jackson and others who viewed it as a tool of the elite against the common man. - *Role in Economy*: Played a larger role in regulating state banks and managing inflation, but its power was often seen as overreaching.

### Federal Reserve System (Established 1913) - *Response to Financial Panics*: The Federal Reserve was created in response to a series of financial panics, particularly the Panic of 1907, highlighting the need for a central bank to manage the nation's monetary system and provide stability. - *Decentralized Structure*: Unlike its predecessors, the Federal Reserve has a decentralized structure with twelve regional Federal Reserve Banks, balancing the interests of private banks and the public. - *Democratic Governance*: It operates under a government oversight system, with its leaders appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate, ensuring a balance between private banking and public accountability. - *Flexible Monetary Policy*: The Fed has a more flexible approach to monetary policy, with tools like open market operations, reserve requirements, and interest rate setting. - *Role in the Economy*: It plays a crucial role in managing inflation, supervising and regulating banks, maintaining financial stability, and acting as a lender of last resort.

### Reasons for the Federal Reserve's Staying Power 1. *Adaptive and Flexible Monetary Policy*: The Fed can adapt its policies to changing economic conditions, a flexibility not present in the earlier banks. 2. *Balance of Interests*: The Federal Reserve's structure balances the interests of various stakeholders, including the public, government, and private banks. 3. *Learning from Past Mistakes*: The design of the Fed incorporated lessons from the failures of the previous banks, particularly in terms of decentralized structure and stronger regulatory powers. 4. *Evolving Role in a Changing Economy*: The Federal Reserve's role has evolved over time, adapting to the complexities of a modern economy and global financial system.

The Federal Reserve's ability to evolve and adapt to changing economic conditions, along with its balanced structure and democratic oversight, has been crucial in its longevity and effectiveness compared to the earlier U.S. central banks.

Nominal interest rate in the country X = real inflation rate in X + Fed Funds rate (about 5.5%) + cost of money

Turkey's central bank accepts that Turkey's inflation is at least 30%.

It is around 60%. Nobody is rushing to the bank to get that sweet -20 interest. Trust me.

If inflation is 60% and interest is only 40 percent, wouldn’t everyone be running to the bank to get a loan and buy stuff, knowing the loan will be devalued significantly?

Yes if loans were being granted by banks

The bank can and will charge a much higher interest rate than the central bank does.

If they grant the loans they will issue them in Dollars or Euros. And good luck trying to pay those off if your income is in Turkish Lira.

Actually this is not that common. Instead you get a variable interest rate and nobody wants to get into that either. Business loans are even worse. Banks can recall the loan at any time without a reason. They've caused the bankruptcy of a lot of companies in the past.

Like unsupp0rted said, access to credit is severely limited.

One example. For new car loans, for the price bracket most normal cars are in (800,000 to 1,200,000 try.these are your < 1.6lt commuters) you can get a loan for 30% of the value of the car and the term is 24 months max. For the next bracket it's 20%. The next bracket is over 2,000,000 try and 0% which is basically all cars with an engine larger than 1.6lt and some that aren't. (Excepting electrics I think). I am no math guru but that 0% of the value of the car is probably another word for no loan at all. :)

That's bad then: nominal interest rate should be greater than the perceived inflation rate. What does this interest rate hike achieve then? I think, it creates more inflation, instead of curbing inflation.

Interest rates are a mean to control the expected inflation, not the realized one. The expected inflation for 2024 is 36%, which means the current interest rates are sufficient to settle it.

That would be true if the government instutition in charge of determining actual inflation wasn't fudging the numbers. I was actually suprised to see people discussing this interest increase like it means something.

Both announced and the expected inflation (especially after the changes in the central bank admin, since May) numbers have been globally recognized both by local independent groups (most known one is ENAG) and international financial institutions. Where did you end up with this idea of inflation number not meaning anything?

They can’t explode the interest rate from 8% to 60% over night. This is the latest in half a dozen incremental increases, each one very high by western standards (but each one tiny relative to inflation).

Now they’re finally approximately in the range of “this might actually have some useful effect”.

They've had to become this drastic because they refused to do it and decreased it instead when exchange rates & inflation were already getting out of hand and relatively small adjustments could have had an effect. It was a weird religious belief and personal "feelings" of the president, who calls himself an economist (among other things).

Completely normal. Nothing to see here.

For Turkey it is completely normal. They hiked by 5% last month, and the month before.

Hikes/cuts of 10%, 20% or even 40% are not unheard of.

That's edging into hyperinflation territory. You'd be mad to invest in Turkey right now.

This is a security concern for the region.

Hitler solved this level of crisis. Didn't work out well for the neighbors.

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