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I don't think that's a mainstream take. But I can settle with:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overconfidence_effect

Or even

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grandiose_delusions

That first article cites more behavioral psych research, which has the absolute worst track record of data analysis. After so many retractions and scandals, I find it difficult to know what to believe anymore.

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