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If you aren’t aware of the cereal grain price issues in Europe I’m not sure you are paying attention. Here’s one recent relevant article; there are a ton more if you look:

https://www.npr.org/2023/05/18/1176714159/italy-pasta-crisis...

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Base on numbers in that article, average Italian eats 51lb of pasta annually or spends around 50-60 euro/y, or 5 euro/month, it is still not believable that it makes significant impact.

I think food costs like many other costs remain near historic lows, but a euro stolen is a euro earned in every subsequent month for the coalition to prevent housing supply.

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